Support For Scottish Independence Has Fallen
19 March 2017, 06:00
A poll for LBC and The Sunday Times has found support for Scottish independence has fallen.
Nicola Sturgeon's Scottish independence campaign has stalled - according to a new poll for LBC and The Sunday Times, which was conducted after the First Minister called for a second referendum between autumn 2018 and Spring 2019.
The Panelbase survey shows 44 per cent of people would vote Yes - a drop of almost one per cent compared to the 2014 referendum - with 56 per cent backing No.
The first minister’s intervention has also failed to overturn a narrow majority (51 per cent) which remains opposed to another referendum being held in the next few years.
But SNP members at the conference in Aberdeen yesterday (Saturday) didn’t believe the results.
One told LBC Scotland Reporter Connor Gillies: “We're canvassing now for local elections and the response on the door does not suggest those figures."
Another said: “I don't trust these polls. I used to do market research and I know how they work. The wording can actually - it depends how you interpret it."
Following Theresa May’s announcement that she is ruling out support for a second referendum until after Brexit, some senior SNP colleagues have suggested that Sturgeon should hold a snap Scottish election.
Another option being studied is to go ahead with a referendum without the legal support of Westminster.
John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde university, said the poll shows that Ms Sturgeon has had no success in reducing the level of opposition to holding any kind of referendum in the wake of Brexit.
He added that it may be in Ms Sturgeon’s interest not to try to force an early second referendum.
He said: “With just 44 per cent support in our latest poll, the Yes side still has considerable ground to make up if it is to win a second ballot.
"In particular, it is no further forward than it was at the time of the September 2014 referendum in convincing voters of the financial benefits of independence. More time to argue her case might, in truth, be just what Nicola Sturgeon wants.”