Without stepping foot in Alaska, Putin has already won

Some hope that it could be the beginning of the end for the war in Ukraine.

I can see why it might look like a positive step in that direction; however, the reality is that it demonstrates why this war is unlikely to end anytime soon. At least not with a solution all sides can be happy with.

The sad but fundamental truth is that for summits like this to work, they require months of detailed preparation; this one has been hastily cobbled together with barely a week’s notice, so the essential behind-the-scenes back and forth over territorial and operational disputes, as well as the wording of potential statements, hasn’t taken place. It would be unprecedented to have a major agreement without doing the necessary legwork.

More importantly, all parties involved want different things.

Trump wants to be seen as a strong leader - a titan on the global stage – and as a dealmaker. He promised to end this war within one day of taking office. He’s long since failed to do this, but even ending it now would buy him some goodwill with his hyper-isolationist MAGA base, and take him a step closer to the Nobel Peace Prize he’s so desperate to be awarded before he leaves office for good.

Putin has already got what he wants. His diplomatic isolation is over, and Trump has given him a platform on the world stage. His country is no longer a pariah state, and he has a golden opportunity to flex his diplomatic muscles and show that Russia remains a major global player.

There’s little incentive for Putin to make a deal at this summit: Ukraine won’t willingly cede all the territory Putin wants, nor is it likely to accept demilitarisation or a ban on NATO membership. These are fundamental red lines for Russia, lines which Putin won’t cross, so we probably won’t be seeing a deal anytime soon.

So, what of Ukraine and Europe? Their top priorities are to end this war as quickly as possible, protect Ukraine’s sovereignty, and prevent Putin from going any further. These are noble aims, but Trump seems not to be interested in restoring Ukraine’s territory, and the Europeans don’t even have a seat at the table – they are relying on Trump, who sees Europe as a minor player in global security matters and is unlikely to do much to advance the European cause.

So yes, there will be discussions, there will be eye-catching pictures of Trump shaking Putin’s hand and bringing him in from the cold after a few long and frosty years of sitting in the diplomatic freezer, but the fundamentals of this war are unlikely to be changed by the Alaska summit. It will, sadly, go on.

____________________

Professor Andrew Moran is Head of Criminology, Sociology, Politics and International Relations at London Metropolitan University.

LBC Opinion provides a platform for diverse opinions on current affairs and matters of public interest.

The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official LBC position.

To contact us email opinion@lbc.co.uk