My American 2026 predictions: a big birthday, the World Cup, and full-blown authoritarianism, writes Simon Marks

In July, we’ll be celebrating America’s 250th birthday and hosting (at least part of) the World Cup. And it won’t only be the England and Scotland fans that are on the edge of their seats as the year advances. For Democrats, it’s going to be a nail-biter as well, with hope springing eternal that the mid-term elections in November will give them a fresh chance to impeach President Donald Trump yet again, and tie him up in knots for his remaining time in office.

2025 ends with both the president and his opponents in the doldrums. Trump’s approval rating fell below 40 per cent in the final Reuters/Ipsos poll of the year. A mere 31 per cent of voters approve of his handling of the economy, and that’s a huge problem for Republicans and their leader given the importance pocketbook issues will play in the minds of the electorate as one-third of the Senate and the entire House of Representatives come up for grabs.

But polling for the Democrats makes even grimmer reading. A mere 18 per cent of voters approve of the job Congressional Democrats are doing, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll published last week. Voters are meting out punishment to an opposition that has largely vanished since last year’s presidential election.

In the 2024 campaign, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris darkly warned that the country’s political system would not survive a second Trump term. Voters were told the stakes could not be any higher if they wanted to preserve America’s governing arrangements.

But after Trump’s win, the party disappeared into purdah, even announcing recently that it would not publish the outcome of its post-mortem on Harris’ defeat, saying it would be a “distraction” to place the autopsy in the public domain. Voters must instead draw their own conclusions about the damning findings from the Democrats’ 12-month self-assessment.

At the end of a year in which the president has completely eclipsed his opponents, many Democratic Party grandees can fairly be accused of abandoning the United States at the very moment its democracy lies wounded on the field of battle.

That’s certainly the view of Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey, who, on several occasions this year, has flayed his fellow Democrats for betraying the American people. Last month, in an interview with The New York Times, he conceded that his own party had “made terrible mistakes”. He went so far as to say “I’m one of those people who’s saying our party has failed”.

There are notable exceptions – Governor Gavin Newsom of California, Governor J.B. Pritzker of Illinois, Senator Chris Murphy of Connecticut, and Congressman Jasmine Crockett of Texas have found ways to cut through. But the New Year will tell us whether the Democrats more broadly can find the path to success and what kind of party emerges from their rancorous, ongoing conversations.

Will left-wingers like Zohran Mamdani, the Mayor-elect of New York City, succeed in persuading the party’s backers that more progressive, Democratic Socialist positions are needed to combat Trump? Or will centrists, like Virginia’s Governor-elect, Abigail Spanberger (who has warned party members never even to articulate the word “socialist”), remain in the driving seat? The fate of the party will be determined by the outcome.

Trump will be keeping a close eye, as he seeks to correct his own administration’s direction of travel. A Cabinet reshuffle seems likely in early January. Don’t be surprised if figures including Secretary of Homeland Security Kristi Noem, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and FBI Director Kash Patel are suddenly kicked to the kerb.

For immigrants living in the United States, the forthcoming year – like 2025 – is unlikely to be much fun. Trump and his Deputy White House Chief of Staff, Stephen Miller, are determined to pick up the pace of mass deportations. The president’s thuggish ICE and Border Patrol agents will continue to round people up, beat some of them up, and then refuse to answer questions about their conduct later.

“Remigration” is the new buzzword, with the president planning to denaturalise thousands of people that the White House claims (without proof) acquired their U.S. citizenship illegally. That move is sending new shivers among people who thought their American passport might provide them with some level of protection.

The courts will undoubtedly be called upon to weigh in on that. Other issues that the Supreme Court is about to adjudicate include Trump’s so-called “reciprocal tariffs” unveiled on “Liberation Day” back in April. It is possible that the majority of justices will deem the duties unconstitutional because the president circumvented Congress and used emergency powers to fire the opening salvos of his global trade war. Several leading businesses have already instructed lawyers to stand by, so they can demand the return of billions of dollars paid in tariffs if Trump loses the case.

Sir Keir Starmer’s relationship with Trump is sure to come under monumental pressure during the next twelve months. The partial trade deal unveiled excitedly back in May has come unstuck. Trump’s determination to sell Ukraine down the river remains unabated. His new National Security Strategy also makes it clear that the White House plans to do everything possible to help far-right parties take power across Europe, including Nigel Farage and Reform UK.

The King’s visit to America in April may help delay and blunt some of Trump’s efforts, but you can’t keep throwing the Royals at the First Family like raw meat aimed at temporarily satiating an angry, big cat. The trajectory of U.S. policy is now clear: expect the Americans to voice more allegations about freedom of speech coming under attack in the U.K., and for Starmer to face added domestic pressure to break formally with an American president he can no longer trust.

As for the big birthday on July 4th, it’s hard to project what kind of mood the country will be in by the time the 250th anniversary rolls around. Currently, I’m not expecting a repeat of 1976 (America’s bicentennial), when the nation came together in joyful celebration. On January 2nd 1976, the great Alastair Cooke warned “Letter from America” listeners to brace for a “patriotic nightmare” of commemorations that would peak, but assuredly not end, on July 4th.

In today’s polarised United States, I fear we may be in for a nightmare of different proportions altogether.

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Simon Marks is LBC’s US Correspondent.

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