Will Andy Burnham be able to beat Reform in Makerfield? What the data shows
Can Greater Manchester Mayor win a by-election, would he boost Labour's polling, and what have surveys said about his next general election chances?
An Andy Burnham-led Labour Party could beat Reform UK in a general election, a poll has suggested, but can the Greater Manchester Mayor even get into Parliament to begin with?
Listen to this article
Labour has approved a plan for the leadership hopeful to run in the Makerfield by-election, having stopped him from contesting the Gorton and Denton seat when it was up for grabs earlier this year.
If Mr Burnham wins the vote, which is likely to be on June 18, the former health secretary will have the means to mount a challenge to Sir Keir Starmer for party leadership.
To do this, he would need to receive backing from 81 Labour MPs to put a vote to party members, which could happen as soon as this autumn.
However, this all comes with the assumption that Mr Burnham will win the seat, which has been freed up for him to stand after the resignation of current Makerfield MP Josh Simons.
Here is what the latest data suggests about the Greater Manchester Mayor's chances.
The nationwide polls
Mr Burnham's keenness to run for Labour leadership is perhaps reflected in the national poll situation, where Labour is currently lagging third behind Reform and the Conservatives.
Here are the latest voting intentions, according to YouGov.
- Reform UK: 25% (-3 from 10-11 May)
- Conservatives: 18% (+1)
- Labour: 17% (+1)
- Greens: 15% (-1)
- Lib Dems: 14% (+1)
Makerfield election results in 2024
Josh Simons won the Makerfield seat for Labour in 2024 by just 5,399 votes.
Robert Kenyon, who is standing again for Reform this time around, polled 12,803 votes - behind the 18,202 votes that Labour received, putting the right-wing party within need of only a small swing to win the seat.
The seat could be a two-horse race, with the Conservatives finishing third in 2024, their candidate, Simon Finkelstein, receiving 4,379 votes.
Lib Dem John Skipworth and Green Maria Deery were fourth and fifth respectively, with 2,735 and 1,776 votes.
Latest polling data for Makerfield by-election
In the local elections, held at the beginning of May, Reform won 22 Wigan Council seats from Labour - including all of those in the Makerfield area. Reform additionally took more than 50% of the vote share in these wards.
Labour's chances of winning the by-election are, however, boosted by Mr Burnham himself, with a study by Survation finding that the party had a 64% chance of winning with the Greater Manchester Mayor as the candidate and zero chance without him.
Survation additionally found that Labour had a better chance of winning the Gorton and Denton by-election, held earlier this year, if Mr Burnham had been the candidate. The seat was ultimately won by the Green Party.
Could Andy Burnham win a general election for Labour?
A poll carried out for More in Common and seen exclusively by the Press Association, found that Labour would get an eight-point boost with Mr Burnham at its helm.
This would put Labour up to 30% of the vote to Reform’s 27%, if an election was held tomorrow, reversing the current one and two.
The Conservatives would trail on 20%, the Liberal Democrats on 11% and the Green Party on 7%.
Four in 10 of those surveyed from across the political spectrum believed Mr Burnham had done a good job as Greater Manchester mayor, compared to less than 1 in 10 saying he had done a bad job.
But answers were less clear-cut when asked whether he would be a good prime minister, with 31% thinking he would, 20% saying he would not, and nearly half giving no opinion.