Andy Burnham is the bravest politician in Britain for ending the triple lock, writes James Hanson
Burnham says the triple lock will be ‘adjusted’ from April 2030 - but make no mistake, he’s scrapped it
Andy Burnham, take a bow.
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By announcing the end of the triple lock from April 2030, the Prime Minister has taken a massive political risk. The policy, which guarantees the state pension rises each year by whichever is highest of 2.5%, inflation or earnings, was justified when it was introduced by the coalition government, but it has long since done its job.
While the state pension has been protected, and in several years increased above inflation, working-age people have enjoyed no such support. Instead, younger generations in particular have been squeezed like never before, with sky-high student debts, a prohibitively expensive housing market and a growing youth unemployment crisis. Giving younger generations a leg up is long overdue.
That’s why, to help fund his new National Care Service, Burnham says the triple lock will be ‘adjusted’ from April 2030. The language is deliberate - he’s trying to soften the blow. But make no mistake, he’s scrapped it. Instead, what is effectively a double-lock will be introduced, meaning the state pension will rise each year by whichever is higher of 2.5% or inflation.
This is a huge gamble, for which the PM deserves credit. As Burnham admitted himself, he may pay a hefty electoral price for touching what has become in recent years the third rail of British politics. But he was right to say that someone needs to go through the “political pain barrier” and rip the plaster off. All he has done is say publicly what almost every MP will tell you in private: that the triple lock, while well-intentioned, has become both unaffordable and unfair.
According to the government’s own independent forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility, the triple lock is forecast to add £15bn a year to the welfare bill by 2030. At a time when the public purse is strained like never before, with rocketing borrowing costs, a debt of nearly 100% of GDP, and demands for extra spending on defence and social care, something has to give. That something is the triple lock.
So hats off to Andy Burnham. Whether you agree with him or not, he has done something too few politicians have been prepared to do in recent years: tell the truth. He has levelled with the British people and, on pensions at least, has done what is needed instead of what is popular. Today, the Prime Minister has shown he isn’t just the people-pleaser his opponents accuse him of being.
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Listen to James Hanson on LBC on weekends between 4 and 7am.
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