Andy Burnham’s first test: a public with little faith in the Justice system

But how much patience does the public have left with our Justice system and, by extension, Andy Burnham as a ‘first test’ as he urges them to “have faith”?

Here at Ipsos, we have tracked trends among LBC readers from Labour’s first announcement of the scheme in 2024 to the present day, revealing the latest public perceptions on this thorny issue.

What do we find?

Public confidence in the criminal justice system remains low, with 68% saying they do not have confidence in the system as a whole.

Now that has not changed much since 2024, but opposition to early release has surged to 69%, up sharply from 53% in September that year. Just less than 1 in 10 support it today.

Though a significant proportion (63%) of voters still attribute prison overcrowding to the previous Conservative administration, there has been a significant 10 percentage point increase in those who say the current Labour Government are now responsible from when we last asked, signalling that public patience with legacy explanations and emergency measures has worn thinner.

That is particularly acute politically when it comes to opposition to early release among 2024 Labour voters spiking from 41% in 2024 to 64% today.

The public expects crime to rise as a result

Worryingly still, amidst the wider public, when it comes to our personal expectations on the implications – around 6 in 10 expect early releases to increase anti-social behaviour, almost the same number that anticipate higher reoffending, or a rise in violent crime.

And when it comes to their views on the changes being implemented by the Sentencing Act, we find public support for a greater focus on rehabilitation, support, and protection for victims, as the Act intends.

But there lies a key tension. With more support for more offenders receiving prison sentences, even for less serious crimes, as a demonstration that criminal behaviour has consequences.

Our latest research shows support for, and an understanding of, the need for rehabilitation to reduce reoffending and, over time, ease pressure on prison capacity, while ensuring the probation service effectively supports community sentences.

But without a clear long-term strategy that balances acute operational pressures in prisons with a public that demands tough sentencing, better protection for victims, and clear reassurances on public safety, the Government risks turning an inherited operational crisis into a permanent deficit of public confidence.

This is a first test for the new Prime Minister while the jury is still out.

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Dr Helen Powell is Research Director and Head of the Crime, Cohesion, and Security policy team at Ipsos.

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