Andy Burnham rated most likely to be a good Prime Minister, polling reveals

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Fresh research for LBC by Ipsos shows Nigel Farage’s party are still leading clearly among voters, with 27 per cent of the vote, followed by Labour on 20 per cent.

And the race for the Manchester Mayor to return to Westminster was formally kicked off this week, Mr Burnham was seen as more likely to have what it takes for the top job (28 per cent) compared to 18 per cent who thought Sir Keir Starmer did.

Reform’s polling halts a steady decline for the party from September, where their vote share has fallen from 34 per cent to a low of 24 per cent, according to the pollster.

But they’re now up one point from last month, after Mr Farage’s party continues to ride high on their local elections success.

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The Conservatives trail just a point behind Labour, on 19 per cent, with the Greens on 14 per cent and the Lib Dems on 12 per cent.

Just 13 per cent are satisfied with the Prime Minister and how he’s running the country, compared to 27 per cent who are happy with Nigel Farage, and 28 per cent who are satisfied with Tory boss Kemi Badenoch.

Ipsos Director of Politics Keiran Pedley said: "Following a successful local election, Reform UK maintain a solid lead over Labour in terms of voting intention. 

"Looking ahead, whilst Keir Starmer’s leadership of Labour – and position as Prime Minister – are clearly under threat, it is notable that only Andy Burnham stands out as a popular alternative with the public.

"Which makes the Makerfield by-election such a politically consequential significant event."

Among leaders, the most capable PM is seen to be Nigel Farage on 18 per cent, but those who said ’none’ came out on top with 31 per cent of those polled.

However, Ipsos found that aside from Mr Burnham, the public aren’t convinced by other possible successors to the PM.

Just 12 per cent thinks Angela Rayner has what it takes to be PM, 11 per cent say Ed Miliband does, and nine per cent think Wes Streeting does.

It comes as the first polling for the Makerfield by-election shows a tight race to come - with Labour on 43 per cent and Reform on 40 per cent, according to Survation.

Mr Burnham is up against Reform’s Robert Kenyon for the Makerfield seat, which was vacated by Labour MP Josh Simons, who called on the PM to step down and for Mr Burnham to replace him.

The Manchester Mayor, who left parliament in 2017, has said a vote for him is to change the Labour Party and try a different approach.

He’s widely expected to challenge the PM for the leadership of the Labour Party, should he get elected to the seat.

Mr Streeting was pictured campaigning for Mr Burnham this weekend in Makerfield, but has said he will run to be Labour leader if the Prime Minister is challenged in future.

Launching his bid for the seat on Friday, Mr Burnham said migration needed to fall further, and that locals had raised concerns about immigration with him on the doorstep.

It comes after the Home Office recorded a huge fall in net migration in the last year, with 171,000 more people coming to the UK than leaving.

He also said he “supports the broad thrust” of what the Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood is saying with her plans to reform immigration rules, and make it harder to gain indefinite leave to remain status.

Since stating he’d run for the seat, Mr Burnham has rowed back on comments he made about wanting to rejoin the EU, and has said now isn’t the time for a debate on the issue.

And on Friday he said his view on single-sex spaces had changed - saying he now respects the Supreme Court’s definition of a woman and says it “has to be implemented”.

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Natasha Clark is LBC's Political Editor.