Andy Burnham’s by-election gamble will decide Labour’s future, writes Natasha Clark

I'm told the tensions within No10 have been off the charts - which is understandable, given that they've nearly stopped the government from collapsing a couple of times in the last few days.

The former Health Secretary has said that Andy Burnham should return to Parliament, a drumbeat that seems to be growing stronger by the day.

And now there's a clear seat available, and a path to get there, it's looking like a more realistic prospect that a leadership contest will happen, and the Manchester Mayor may be a viable contender.

There are, of course, all manner of scenarios that could play out, but this situation does benefit Team Starmer.

It buys him some time to try to shore up support and get the national conversation back on track to what he's doing about Iran, the cost of living, and the NHS.

The expected announcement from Rachel Reeves next week on that support will help the government here.

Meanwhile, back in leadership land, the chaos of the last few days may now have a chance to breathe.

Most insiders expect Burnham to be allowed to stand as the official candidate, unlike after Gorton and Denton, a sign of the political capital collapse within Downing Street.

But the seat of Makerfield is no walk in the park - Reform are absolutely hot on their heels.

I don't put much stock in the idea that Burnham picked this seat because it's Reform-facing and therefore an opportunity for him to show he could beat Nigel Farage in a general election.

If Team Burnham had another, safer seat in mind, you'd imagine they would have made that happen earlier this week, but they did not.

Makerfield saw Reform take more than 50 per cent of the vote in last week's local elections, with Labour trailing at half that.

So it's an uphill battle for the Manchester Mayor - and the worst case scenario would be for him to lose this, and Labour then to descend into a bitter and divided leadership contest without him.

His allies tell me polling doesn't show off the "Andy sparkle factor" and say he's got a great chance of winning the seat.

Yet Reform are cautious and privately keeping expectations low.

One thing is clear. This is going to be "Gorton and Denton on steroids", as one source says.

Never before has a by-election had the potential for such enormous consequences.

This seat, and the people of this Greater Manchester area, may help set in motion a chain of events that could see a sitting Labour prime minister booted out of office.

And that puts the chances of an early election far, far higher too.

The momentum of many MPs as we go into this weekend feels like it is rolling with Andy Burnham, likely supported by MPs across the party.

But we still cannot rule out a surprise move in the next few weeks and months from Wes Streeting - a man who has time and time again shown us he will do whatever it takes to try and make it to No10.

____________________

Natasha Clark is LBC's Political Editor.

LBC Opinion provides a platform for diverse opinions on current affairs and matters of public interest.

The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official LBC position.

To contact us email opinion@lbc.co.uk