Andy Burnham is making promises to victims that Britain’s prisons cannot keep

For survivors of rape, abuse and serious violence, sentencing policy will never be an abstract debate about prison capacity. Rather, it determines when the person responsible for the worst experience of their life may return to the community. Imagine discovering that this could happen much earlier than you had been led to expect.

That is why the controversy surrounding the government’s early-release plans matters – and why Prime Minister Andy Burnham must stop making promises to victims before establishing whether he can keep them.

The Sentencing Act 2026 introduced reforms intended, in part, to relieve the severe pressure on our overcrowded prisons. Section 23 changes the point at which some prisoners serving fixed-term sentences will be automatically released.

The precise rules are complex and depend upon the offence, the type of sentence and the law under which it was imposed. But for some prisoners, the practical effect is straightforward: release after one-third of a sentence rather than one-half, or after one-half rather than two-thirds. For their victims, that can mean discovering that the punishment announced in court will not keep the offender in prison for as long as they believed.

On 23 July, Mr Burnham paused the introduction of the new regime and ordered an urgent review following a public backlash. The government has now announced that people imprisoned for rape, grooming and serious child sexual offences will be excluded, while the scheme itself has been delayed from September until October.

As an abuse lawyer, I welcome that exclusion. It will spare many victims of these appalling offences from being told that their abusers qualify for substantially earlier release. But the central problem remains unresolved - which is that people imprisoned for other serious violent offences may still qualify. Their victims must continue to live with the fear and uncertainty caused by the prospect of an offender returning to the community earlier than expected.

Mr Burnham’s initial announcement now looks hasty. He raised expectations that he would intervene on behalf of victims, only to run into the legal and practical realities of an overcrowded prison system.

There is no easy answer to the prisons crisis. England and Wales already hold approximately 86,000 prisoners, and the government says adult male prisons are operating at 98% capacity – with inevitably grim consequences for prisoners and staff alike.

Official figures have recorded deaths in prison custody at their highest numerical level since the current time series began. Reports of violence, drugs, self-harm, deteriorating buildings and inadequate support demonstrate a system under intolerable strain.

The government cannot keep adding categories of offenders to the exclusion list without explaining where those prisoners will be held. If prisons run out of space, the consequences for public safety could be catastrophic.

But the severity of that dilemma makes honesty with victims more important. Ministers must explain clearly which offenders will be affected, when the changes will happen and what safeguards will be imposed following release. Victims should be contacted and supported. They should not have to discover through the media that the sentence they heard in court may no longer mean what they believed it did.

Mr Burnham has promised tougher tagging, longer supervision and restriction zones for released offenders. Those measures may offer some reassurance, but they are not the same as remaining in prison – and victims should not be expected to pretend otherwise.

What I want to see is the government’s broader and more honest strategy for reducing pressure on prisons. Above all, it must manage victims’ expectations with frankness rather than offering assurances that unravel days later.

If “victims must come first” is to mean anything, they must be given honesty about what the government can deliver, proper support when release dates change and protection grounded in reality rather than rhetoric. Victims have already had control taken from them once – they must not now be used as an audience for promises that Britain’s prison system cannot keep.

____________________

Malcolm Johnson is Head of Abuse Claims at Lime Solicitors.

LBC Opinion provides a platform for diverse opinions on current affairs and matters of public interest.

The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official LBC position.

To contact us email opinion@lbc.co.uk