Angela Rayner’s exit risks a civil war Labour cannot afford, writes Andrew Marr
Angela Rayner was always going to go. Once Sir Laurie Magnus concluded that the legal advice she had relied on was wrong, her position as Deputy Prime Minister became impossible.
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She had tried to do the right thing, sought advice in good faith, and been failed by it. In the Westminster system, that doesn’t matter.
She was finished. There is, at least, no rancour.
Both her letter and Keir Starmer’s reply were unusually generous.
Nobody I know at Westminster thinks Rayner is corrupt or wicked. It is simply a sad business. But let’s not mistake the personal for the political. This isn’t just about losing a senior minister. Rayner was also deputy leader of the Labour Party — and that is where the real danger lies.
If a contest for deputy leader now follows, Starmer could lose control of the party. Think about it: what if a soft-left figure, perhaps someone he himself had recently sacked, emerged as the winner?
Overnight you would have a deputy leader in open disagreement with the Prime Minister on tax, spending and foreign policy. Reporters would flock to her office.
A rival centre of power would appear inside Labour’s own high command. That sets the stage for a kind of civil war. On one side are those close to Starmer, shaped by the Blair years. Wes Streeting, Shabana Mahmood, and a Number 10 now reinforced by Tim Allan, one of Blair’s former spinners.
Tony Blair himself is back in the conversation too, urging caution: no new taxes, ease off on workers’ rights, be careful on Israel.
On the other side stand the soft left. Think Ed Miliband, Louise Haigh and others. They believe Labour has mislaid its soul.
They argue the wealthy should pay more, that unions need more support, and that the party must take a tougher line over Gaza.
Some of their supporters are already drifting towards Jeremy Corbyn and Zarah Sultana’s new party. Many remain inside Labour.
And if they see the deputy leadership as their chance, we could be heading for open warfare at the party conference.
Picture the scene: activists rallying behind rival candidates, factional arguments breaking out on the conference floor, headlines about Labour’s splits just as the government is already besieged on every side.
Reform UK gaining ground. A grim budget looming in November. The government’s standing already desperately weak.
For Starmer, this would be the worst possible time to lose control. There is a temptation, in these moments, to shrug and say “they’re all the same”. I don’t agree.
Under the Conservatives, ministers broke the rules and clung on. Boris Johnson did so repeatedly. Here, the code was tightened.
Rayner referred herself. When the verdict came, she resigned. The system, for once, worked. But process will not save Starmer now.
His task is to stop a contest for deputy leader becoming a proxy war for Labour’s soul. If he fails, the party will turn its fire inward, and the country will see a movement at war with itself. That, for Labour, would be lethal.
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