Badenoch can’t save a party that has forgotten why it matters, writes James Hanson

Thousands of members travelled from all over the country for it. The Westminster press pack attended en masse. Corporate lobbyists paid huge sums for stands. And the leader’s speech almost always led the evening news.

This was not some bygone era, but just a couple of years ago. In fact, as recently as 2021, Tory conference was dominated by talk of a decade of Boris Johnson in Number 10 - fresh from a stunning victory over Labour in the Hartlepool by-election and enjoying the so-called ‘vaccine boost’ in the polls. The oldest and most successful political party in the Western world seemed as dominant as ever.

What a difference four years make. Having attended the Labour conference in Liverpool last week, I was struck by how few of my media colleagues said they’d be travelling on to Manchester for the Tory gathering. The party just isn’t where the story’s at anymore. Both Labour and Reform UK now see each other as their main opponent, with the Conservatives relegated to a punch line - Sir Keir Starmer joked “remember them?” last week.

The fundamental question hanging over this year’s conference in Manchester is simple: is this the Tories’ last gasp? Are we witnessing the death throes of a once mighty electoral force? Has the party of Disraeli, Churchill and Thatcher simply run out of road? Many Conservatives have already made up their minds, with a rising number of donors, activists and elected officials defecting to Reform.

But if there’s one consolation for Kemi Badenoch it should be this: we live in an age of unprecedented political volatility. Just over a year ago, Labour won a parliamentary majority of 174 - within 15 months, Keir Starmer is the most unpopular PM on record. Two years ago, Nigel Farage was in the political wilderness and the literal jungle as a contestant on I’m A Celebrity Get Me Out Of Here - now, he’s the bookies’ favourite to win the next election. Political tides have never gone in and out so quickly.

The next general election doesn’t need to be held until August 2029 - a huge amount can change between now and then. As such, the Tory leader would do well to remember the words of the ice-hockey legend Wayne Gretzky, who wisely observed that you should always “skate to where the puck is going, not where it has been”.

The most headline-grabbing policy announcements of the Conservative conference so far have concerned immigration. Badeneoch has announced a future Tory government will take Britain out of the European Convention on Human Rights. She’s also promised a Removals Force to deport illegal migrants, inspired by Donald Trump’s Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency.

Neither of these policies are without justification. One of the most spectacular failures of the Conservatives’ fourteen years in power between 2010 and 2024 was their inability to reduce both legal and illegal immigration, despite their public promises. A consensus is emerging, even among senior Labour figures such as Jack Straw and David Blunkett, that solving the small boats issue may be impossible without serious changes to the ECHR - so it is rational for Badenoch to now advocate for withdrawal.

But the Tory leader should be wary of spending too much time talking about immigration. Those for whom the issue is their primary concern will almost certainly vote for Nigel Farage anyway. All that will result from banging on about small boats and deportations is that moderate voters in the towns and villages of southern England may continue to drift towards the Liberal Democrats.

Returning to Wayne Gretzky’s famous advice - where might the political puck be in 2029? By then, Donald Trump will no longer be president. The high watermark of populism is likely to have been reached. Britain’s perilous fiscal situation could well have reached crisis point, and the expensive electoral bribes of Nigel Farage, from scrapping the two-child benefit cap to nationalising industries, may appear recklessly profligate.

It is not infeasible to imagine that voters, by then, might prefer a more moderate and pragmatic alternative to Labour. For all the Conservatives’ nervousness about further defections to Reform UK, they should remember they are also bleeding votes to their left. Remarkably, there is not a single Tory MP in Oxfordshire any more, with affluent, centrist voters preferring the Lib Dems or Labour.

Such voters are most likely to be persuaded back into the Tory fold by one issue alone: the economy. It’s not complicated: the reason most people vote Conservative is because they believe the party is best placed to run the public finances and make their family better off.

With Britain’s borrowing bill now ballooning out of control, Kemi Badenoch has an opportunity to present herself as the adult in the room. Yesterday’s announcement by the Shadow Chancellor, Mel Stride, on the need for welfare cuts was a welcome start.

So my message to Tory activists gathering in Manchester this week is simple: hold your nerve. The demise of the Conservatives has been predicted many times before, and while it would be churlish to deny the party is now in an existential crisis, a comeback is not out of the question. If it happens, it won’t be through aping Nigel Farage and Reform, it’ll be through returning to the cornerstone of Tory support: it’s the economy, stupid.

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