Beware going back into the EU: the bloc is not the same one we left and will drive a hard bargain

It’s all kicked off after Wes Streeting casually remarked that Britain’s future lies “one day back in the European Union”. But pity the EU. They again get to watch us talk to ourselves about the future relationship with little or no attention to what Brussels, or the member states, might be willing to give us.

On the rejoin question specifically, the EU would likely be open to a UK application, but with some caveats. Partly, this is because they are bound by their own treaty to consider applications for democratic European states. Added to which there is the political incentive that there could be no clearer admission of the failure of Brexit than an application to rejoin.

Across member states, populist parties are pushing, if not to leave the EU, then certainly to have ‘less’ Europe. The UK’s return to the club would be a powerful way to say ‘be careful what you wish for’ – less Europe is not necessarily a recipe for success.

The world is also changing rapidly, with the US becoming a less reliable ally and the EU realising that it needs to be able to better defend its own economic and security interests. As one of Europe’s major economic and military powers, there is no doubt that the UK could play an important role in that process, although some in the EU might be more open to this than others.

Member states might also look favourably upon the UK making a clear choice about where its future lies. Some do not like the current UK approach of trying to ‘cherry pick’ closer access to the EU market in certain areas (e.g. food, goods, energy) while staying outside in others. By contrast, a UK ‘rejoin’ application would follow clear and established processes, with the UK treated like any other EU membership candidate.

One thing is clear; the UK would not be granted special treatment this time round. Whether it was the refusal to join the euro or Margaret Thatcher’s infamous demand for a budget rebate, many in the EU remember the UK as an awkward partner and will want to avoid a repeat.

The UK would also have to accept that it is rejoining an organisation that is different from the one it left. More deeply integrated in security and defence, more open to common borrowing (as evidenced during the pandemic), and increasingly shaped in the image of French preferences for European autonomy. This might not be to the UK’s liking but it would have to accept it regardless.

While the EU would drive a hard bargain to rule out UK ‘opt-outs’ of areas of the Single Market, its biggest concern will likely be political instability in the UK. The worst-case scenario from the EU’s perspective would be negotiating and ratifying an accession treaty, which would then be ripped up by a future UK government. This prospect will, at a minimum, give member states pause for thought should they ever be called on to consider a British application.

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Anand Menon, director, Joël Reland, senior researcher, and Jannike Wachowiak, research associate, at the academic think tank, UK in a Changing Europe.

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