Britain’s biggest cities may have just delivered Starmer a death sentence

One in seven Labour MPs has a constituency in London. And London only elects councillors every four years. England’s second city, Birmingham, also has all-out elections, while the next biggest - Manchester and Leeds - are electing a third of their councillors each.

Labour’s support has always been disproportionately urban. If, as seems likely, the party has had its worst set of results across England’s biggest cities in decades - possibly a century - that’s a disaster for Starmer.

And that’s just the start of the story.

Labour currently has 21 MPs in Wales, and 37 in Scotland - collectively, another one in seven of their seats. If, as expected, it has been hammered in both countries, losing the latter for the first time in a century, then this isn’t just the usual mid-term blues for a governing party. It’s an unprecedented collapse in support, similar to the wipe-outs Labour’s sister parties have faced across Europe in recent years.

Losing councillors isn’t just symbolic. It means hubs of party activity disappear. Roots in communities are severed. They may never grow back. MPs will be watching their closest allies and best organisers in their constituencies, losing their jobs. Starmer’s parliamentary colleagues will be worrying who will deliver their leaflets, keep them up to speed with what’s going on and turn out the vote next time round. If they have any sense, they will be asking whether this is an existential event for their party.

For the last two years, Labour’s strategy has been to present itself as the only alternative to a Nigel Farage-led Reform, in the hope they could corral progressive voters behind them, even while they alienated those same progressive voters with their positions on everything from Gaza to privatisation to public spending. This strategy has been destroyed as many of these voters have flocked to the Greens. However many councillors Polanski’s party wins, it will now be able to present itself as the clear alternative to Reform in many places across England, and to Labour in the major cities. Polls also suggest we will see the first Green MS’s in Wales, and a record-sized group of MSPs in Scotland, possibly even overtaking Labour.

And if Plaid Cymru is leading in Wales and there’s a pro-independence majority in Scotland, then this is also a profound constitutional crisis not just for Starmer, but for the UK - a uniquely unpopular PM trying to face down a Scottish first minister with a mandate for an independence referendum and a new ally in Wales will make the next few months very difficult for Starmer, if he does cling on.

It would be surprising if a prime minister who has presided over such a disaster managed to cling to power, and Starmer may well be gone by the end of the week. On the other hand, it’s always a mistake to assume that Labour back-benchers will do anything brave.

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Adam Ramsay is a journalist and Green party member. He has written extensively about the Green Party’s rise and has a forthcoming book ‘Abolish Westminster,’ soon to be published, and writes a Substack newsletter of the same name.

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