Britain is heating up - but is our health and social care system ready to take the strain?

It’s a preview of a new normal, one of hotter temperatures, longer heatwaves and heightened flood risks. And it forces a difficult question: is our health and care system ready?

Almost a year ago, the government published its 10 Year Health Plan, promising to make the NHS ‘fit for the future’ – with a stark warning to ‘reform or die’. But what kind of future are we preparing for?

We’ve already had a glimpse. During the peak of the 2022 heatwave, almost one in five hospitals had to cancel operations because of excessive temperatures. Since 2021, there have been at least 67 closures of NHS facilities due to flooding. And forecasters warn that a predicted ‘super’ El Niño could bring even more extreme summer weather in 2026 and 2027.

The risks are set to grow. The Climate Change Committee’s report, A Well-Adapted UK, warns that by 2050, heatwaves like the one we’re experiencing now could regularly push temperatures beyond 40°C in parts of the country, while heavier downpours and rising seas increase the threat of flooding. The result is a health service under mounting strain from shocks it was never designed to withstand.

There’s also the toll on the population’s health. Around 2,000 excess deaths per year in the UK are already linked to heat exposure. A Well-Adapted UK estimates this could rise to as high as 10,000 deaths per year by 2050. Heat-related hospital admissions and attendances could triple compared to current levels.

These impacts won’t fall equally. The places hit hardest won’t necessarily be the hottest, but in the communities least able to cope, including older people, those in poor housing, people with existing health conditions, and those in areas with fewer resources. Climate change won’t just raise temperatures, it will widen inequalities.

Some parts of the health and social care system are particularly exposed. The report singles out care home residents as being highly vulnerable during extreme heat, but argues that progress on climate adaptation in social care has been slow.

So what would it take to climate-proof the health and care sector? The estimate from the Climate Change Committee is £0.7–£1.7 billion per year, mainly for upgrading health care facilities. They also highlight that other changes are needed, including improved early warning systems to allow people and services to prepare for extreme weather, and targeted support for at-risk groups. That’s a significant sum, but the cost of doing nothing is higher: more illness, more deaths, and more disruption to already stretched services.

There are plenty of unknowns regarding climate adaptation, including impacts on global supply chains and on food and energy security. But one thing is clear: the UK is getting hotter and flood risks will increase. That is now unavoidable.

What matters is what we do next. If we want a health and care system that is truly ‘fit for the future’, that means taking action to protect people from the health impacts of climate change and ensuring that services can continue to function reliably, despite the more extreme and more volatile conditions that lie ahead. We need to make sure the system can keep running as temperatures rise.

____________________

Chris Naylor is a Senior Fellow at The King’s Fund.

LBC Opinion provides a platform for diverse opinions on current affairs and matters of public interest.

The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official LBC position.

To contact us email opinion@lbc.co.uk