‘Lose space, lose the war’: UK defence risks collapse if satellites are hit, expert warns
Britain’s ability to fight and win a future war could collapse if its space infrastructure is disrupted, a leading defence expert has warned.
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Writing exclusively for LBC Opinion, Graeme Ritchie, CEO of Shield Space, said modern military operations are now so dependent on satellites that any degradation in orbit would have immediate and widespread consequences across the battlefield.
He warned that while the UK has pledged billions more in defence spending, the structure of that investment risks leaving the country exposed in a contested space environment.
“Space now sits upstream of how modern forces operate,” he said. “If space degrades, everything downstream of it does as well.”
The warning comes as the Government commits an extra £2.2 billion to defence for 2025 to 2026, alongside broader efforts to strengthen Britain’s military capabilities amid rising global tensions.
But Ritchie said money alone would not fix what he described as a fundamental vulnerability in how systems are designed.
Using the war in Ukraine as a case study, he pointed to the impact of disrupted GPS signals, which have left drones unable to transmit data, artillery units struggling to operate, and troops forced to slow down due to uncertainty in navigation and targeting.
“When those links hold, units move faster, coordinate more easily, and make better use of what they have,” he said. “When they don’t, capability drops off quickly.”
He warned that much of the UK’s current space architecture remains fragile, with too much reliance placed on a small number of high-value satellites that depend on continuous ground control.
“In a contested environment, those links will be degraded or denied altogether,” he said.
While Britain is investing in major programmes including Skynet, Istari and Oberon, Ritchie said concentrating capability into a limited number of systems creates an obvious target for adversaries.
“A force built around a small number of satellites gives an enemy a clear point of attack,” he said. “Once those are disrupted, the effects will be felt quickly and severely across every other domain.”
Instead, he argued for a shift towards more resilient systems, with greater redundancy, autonomy and dispersion, mirroring how air and maritime forces operate under threat.
That would mean deploying larger numbers of smaller, more adaptable satellites capable of continuing to function even if parts of the network are damaged.
“The systems that tend to hold up best are the ones that spread risk, adapt quickly and keep working even when parts of them fail,” he said.
He also highlighted the growing importance of space domain awareness, warning that simply tracking objects in orbit is no longer enough.
“Understanding intent, and being able to act on it in time, is what matters,” he said, adding that this is increasingly pushing systems towards greater autonomy due to the speed at which threats can develop.
Ritchie warned there is now a widening gap between the resilience outlined in the Government’s Strategic Defence Review and what would exist in a real conflict.
“This is not yet reflected consistently in how our systems are designed or procured,” he said.
He added that without significant changes, the UK risks entering a future conflict with systems that assume stability in an environment where disruption is inevitable.
“This won’t be easy, but it’s necessary,” he said. “If space holds, the rest of the force has a fighting chance. If it doesn’t, it won’t.”