Britain sleepwalking into danger as Poland and EU brace for Russian hybrid war, warn UK experts
Britain risks dangerously underestimating both the scale and the immediacy of the Russian threat in Europe, a delegation of leading UK Russia experts has warned, as Poland and the European Union accelerate preparations for a more volatile security era.
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The delegation has just returned from a visit to Poland, hosted by the Polish Embassy in London, where they met senior figures from Poland’s Ministry of Defence, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, National Security Bureau and the President’s Russia Policy Team.
They also held discussions with British diplomats in Warsaw, national security analysts and Polish think tanks, before receiving field briefings at the Belarusian border and a NATO training range.
Their warning comes as Poland investigates a new round of alleged Kremlin-linked sabotage. Prosecutors plan to charge two Ukrainian nationals with carrying out an explosion on a railway line used to transport supplies towards Ukraine.
Officials say the pair fled into Belarus immediately afterwards and had been collaborating with Russian intelligence “for a long time”. Several others have been detained.
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Prime minister Donald Tusk described the attack as an “unprecedented act of sabotage”, while foreign minister Radek Sikorski called it “an act of state terror”.
The blast damaged tracks near Mika, around 60 miles southeast of Warsaw, and was followed by a separate incident in which power lines along the same rail corridor were destroyed near Pulawy.
No injuries were reported, but both incidents disrupted a critical route used for military logistics to Ukraine.
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky said Kyiv agreed there was a “Russian link”, adding that a joint Polish-Ukrainian group would now be created to prevent further attacks.
Poland has since announced the deployment of up to 10,000 soldiers to protect critical infrastructure, while Sikorski has ordered the closure of the last remaining Russian consulate in the country. Moscow has vowed to retaliate by cutting Poland’s diplomatic presence inside Russia.
The sabotage cases form part of a wider pattern. Western intelligence agencies say Russia and its proxies have staged dozens of hybrid attacks across Europe since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, targeting infrastructure, political institutions, communications systems and supply chains.
Against this backdrop, the delegation warned that Britain risks being left behind just as its allies intensify their response. They noted that Poland is rapidly expanding defence procurement, fortifying borders along the Belarusian frontier and embedding lessons from Ukraine about how to prepare for conventional war.
They urged Whitehall to match Poland’s clarity and urgency.
Their visit coincided with the European Union unveiling a sweeping new defence mobility package designed to move troops and heavy armour quickly across the continent.
With fears growing that Russia is already probing European vulnerabilities, the plan will channel 17.65 billion euro into upgrading 500 choke points from Poland to Portugal, including bridges, tunnels, ports and rail lines incapable of handling military traffic.
The EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, said Europe must take the threat seriously. “Weakness invites them to make their move,” she said, adding that increased readiness could deter Russian aggression.
The package will give armed forces priority access to infrastructure during emergencies and remove barriers that slow military transport, including rules on dangerous goods.
Recent months have also seen a surge in unexplained drone incursions linked to Russia, prompting warnings from EU defence commissioner Andrius Kubilius that Moscow could test NATO’s Article 5 guarantee within the next three or four years.
He said the EU ultimately aims to create a “military Schengen” to ensure troops and armour can move across Europe at speed, noting that mismatched railway gauges and incompatible transport protocols still hamper deployments to the eastern flank.
The initiative comes as Washington signals that Europe must take far greater responsibility for its own security, with US policy increasingly focused on domestic priorities and Asia.
In their joint statement, the British delegation said the UK now risks strategic complacency. They warned that while Europe is racing to fortify its defences in the face of a more aggressive Kremlin, Britain’s assumptions about Russia have not kept pace with events.
The statement was signed by Ben Noble of University College London and Chatham House, Russian military specialist Keir Giles, former Chatham House Russia programme director James Nixey, Jaroslava Barbieri of Chatham House, and Megan Gittoes of Globsec.
They concluded that the UK must urgently reassess its position or risk being left out of step with European allies who are already treating the crisis with the seriousness it demands.