Weapons gone in weeks, supplies stuck at sea: UK defence could be squeezed by Iran disruption, Russia’s war machine and wavering US support
Britain could run out of weapons in weeks in a major war, defence chief warns
Britain could exhaust key weapons stockpiles within weeks in a high-intensity conflict, a defence industry boss has warned, raising fresh concerns about the country’s ability to sustain a prolonged war.
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Britain is sending some of its most advanced air defence systems to the Middle East as the government steps up support for Gulf allies under sustained Iranian attack.
But behind the show of force, defence insiders are warning the UK may only be able to sustain a high-intensity conflict for weeks before key stockpiles begin to run dry.
Speaking exclusively to LBC, Joakim Sjöblom, CEO of SWEBAL, said current UK reserves of missiles, artillery ammunition and critical components would be “consumed blisteringly quickly” if fighting broke out tomorrow.
It echoes a stark assessment by the Royal United Services Institute, which previously suggested Britain could sustain intense combat operations for as little as one to two weeks.
While some improvements have been made since that report, Sjöblom warned the reality remains uncomfortable.
“In a major conflict, stockpiles would be used at a rate far faster than we could hope to replace them,” he said.
Defence Secretary John Healey has confirmed a major expansion of UK military support across the Gulf, including the deployment of the Sky Sabre air defence system to Saudi Arabia, the extension of RAF Typhoon jets in Qatar, and new systems and personnel sent to Bahrain and Kuwait.
British forces have been flying defensive missions since the start of the conflict, with Typhoons, F-35s and helicopters clocking more than 1,200 operational hours protecting allies, bases and British nationals.
The move comes as Iran continues a sustained campaign of missile and drone attacks across the region, with more than 3,500 launched so far.
The UK’s deployments now include a layered air defence presence across multiple countries, with radar systems, missile launchers and specialist personnel integrated into regional networks.
But defence experts say the intensity of those operations highlights a deeper problem.
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Modern warfare has exposed just how quickly armies burn through munitions. The war in Ukraine has seen artillery shells fired in vast quantities, while recent US operations in the Middle East have highlighted the rapid depletion of high-end missiles and interceptors.
The result is a growing recognition that Britain, and much of Europe, is not equipped for a long war without significant external support.
Traditionally that support has come from the United States. But Sjöblom pointed to increasing strain on American stockpiles and a shifting political stance on European defence, warning reliance on Washington can no longer be taken for granted.
At the heart of the issue is a deeper structural weakness, Europe’s limited industrial capacity.
Russia is estimated to produce more than 50,000 tonnes of TNT each year. Across Europe, domestic production sits at roughly 6,000 tonnes.
That gap has become impossible to ignore. “The lesson from Ukraine is that deterrence is not just about advanced platforms,” Sjöblom said. “It is about industrial depth and secure supply chains to sustain them.”
Britain’s supply chains remain heavily exposed. Key materials used in weapons production, including rare earth minerals, semiconductors and explosive inputs, are largely imported from Asia.
In a crisis, those supply lines could be disrupted, leaving production lines stalled and stockpiles depleted.
Even efforts to expand shell manufacturing could falter if the explosives needed to fill them fail to arrive.
“Critical components could be stuck on ships on the other side of the world,” Sjöblom warned. “That quickly translates into empty depots and exposed defences.”
The UK Government has acknowledged the problem, with plans to develop a network of new munitions factories and boost domestic production.
A senior defence source told LBC: “We’re not set up for a prolonged conflict without allies. We’re already having to borrow ships from Germany to meet our NATO commitments. And the one ally we’ve always relied on, the US, is now burning through its own stockpiles and showing less appetite to back Europe.”
Defence Secretary John Healey has pledged to rebuild capability and close the gap with adversaries.
But industry figures say progress is still too slow, and hampered by regulation.
Strict environmental and safety rules mean new facilities take years to approve and build, limiting how quickly capacity can be scaled up.
Sjöblom said European countries must now prioritise cooperation and localised production to reduce reliance on global supply chains.
His own company is attempting to do just that. SWEBAL is building Sweden’s first TNT factory in 30 years in Nora, which will run around the clock and produce 4,000 tonnes annually, with a supply chain concentrated within a 550-kilometre radius.
He said the aim is simple, reduce dependence on imports and strengthen Europe’s ability to defend itself. “We need every gram of explosives,” he said. “We are all a long way from matching Russian capacity.”
A Royal Navy source told LBC: “Supply chains are a glaring weak point. We rely on rare earths, semiconductors and explosive inputs, most of it shipped from Asia. So in a crisis, a good chunk of our war effort is essentially bobbing about near the Strait of Hormuz, hoping Iran lets it through.”
The warning adds to a growing body of evidence suggesting Britain’s armed forces, while advanced on paper, may struggle to sustain operations in a prolonged, high-intensity conflict.
For now, the UK’s military strength remains credible. But without rapid changes to production and supply, defence experts fear that strength could prove difficult to maintain when it matters most.