If Rachel Reeves stalls again, Britain’s supply chains won’t just slow, they’ll seize up

Operators delay upgrading fleets. Wholesalers pause investment. Caterers hold back on planned expansions. When confidence dips, activity across the cold chain slows.

The result is an atmosphere of hesitation across industry - manufacturers like CoolKit included - as companies try to understand what direction the economy is actually moving in.

And confidence has unquestionably slipped. Recent figures from the Institute of Directors show business sentiment falling to a new low.

The Federation of Small Businesses has warned that rising tax pressures and falling revenues could push thousands of firms to the brink - its own survey found that nearly a third expect to downsize or close. For industries already coping with rising operating costs and shifting demand patterns, this level of fragility is hard to navigate.

That’s why the upcoming Budget matters. Businesses need clarity to plan, and stability to invest. Uncertainty freezes decision-making - and once momentum is lost, it’s hard to restart. The food service supply chain is just one example: when operators hesitate, refrigerated vehicle orders stall and the ripple effect is felt all the way back through manufacturing.

We’ve experienced the consequences of unpredictable policymaking directly. Last November’s rise in employers’ National Insurance contributions - combined with the increase in the minimum wage - added around £400,000 to our annual cost base. Like many companies, we responded by halting recruitment. That slows growth, reduces productivity and ultimately limits the very tax receipts the Government depends on.

We all know the Chancellor faces a sizeable fiscal shortfall, estimated around £20bn. Difficult choices are inevitable. But difficult choices must be clearly communicated and consistently applied. What businesses cannot absorb is a cycle of constant U-turns or a new strategy every few months. We need to understand the plan - and trust that it will be followed through.

The Government’s 10-year Industrial Strategy is a prime example. Announced with ambition, yet still lacking the detail - timelines, funding mechanisms and delivery structures - that industry needs in order to believe in it. We’ve seen no meaningful change in how government engages with us since its release. The Budget is the moment to add substance.

There are also practical reforms the Government can no longer afford to delay: a simpler, more navigable tax system; stronger R&D incentives for technologies that improve efficiency and reduce emissions; and clear, stable rules around apprenticeships and the levy. These changes would give manufacturers - and the industries we support, food service among them - the confidence to plan and invest.

Despite the headwinds, we continue to push forward. We expect to grow in 2026, although it sometimes feels like we’re doing so despite the policy environment rather than because of it. At times, it can feel like swimming uphill.

The Chancellor now has an opportunity to restore confidence and set a clear, steady course. Businesses across every supply chain will be watching closely.

Daniel Miller, Managing Director of CoolKit – the UK’s largest refrigerated vehicle specialist.

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