Labour hammered in Caerphilly by-election as Plaid Cymru sees off Reform UK threat

Plaid's Lindsay Whittle won with a 47.38 per cent share (15,961 votes) in South Wales - followed by Reform UK's Llŷr Powell in second place with 35.9 per cent (12,113).

It was a disappointing night for Labour, as the party suffered its first defeat in the area for more than 100 years, with its vote share collapsing to just 11 per cent, a fall of 34.9 per cent.

Reform UK had hoped to capitalise on Labour's polling troubles and pick up the seat - but fell short by more than 3,000 votes.

The night, however, belonged to Mr Whittle, who finally secured an election win after standing for Plaid in Caerphilly 13 times before in Westminster and Welsh Parliament contests since 1983.

Speaking to Simon Conway on LBC News, Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth labelled it a "historic morning" for his party.

"It certainly is a historic morning. It's historic for this constituency, for us as a party and for the story of Wales and Welsh politics."

He added: "We now face the real prospect of having a party other than Labour running Welsh government, that being Plaid Cymru. But this is momentous".

Following his victory, the 72-year-old issued a stark warning to Westminster and Cardiff.

"Listen Cardiff and listen Westminster. This is Caerphilly. And we are telling you we want a better deal. Wales is at the dawn of a new leadership, a new beginning," he said.

Reform leader Nigel Farage was nowhere to be seen following the party's loss, with the leader having visited Wales on four occasions in recent months as part of the party's by-election push.

Speaking with LBC on Friday, Boris Johnson loyalist and recent Reform UK defector Nadine Dorries told Nick it was a win for his party.

"The number of Labour MPs and Conservative MPs who are sat on small majorities who would be absolutely taken away in a tsunami of a vote share - an increase of 34.2 per cent."

Pushed on the Reform loss to Plaid Cymru, Dorries insisted: "I've never said that we would win in Wales".

"I'm not even sure that many people in Reform thought that we would win in Wales.

"The objective was always, I believe, to do our very best, which we did. If we won, that was great. But to come second, I tell you, there will be no tears in Reform today."

Mr Whittle added: "We've beaten billionaire-backed Reform and, with the same determination, we can do it again in May 2026. Caerphilly has shown the way - now Wales must follow."

Mr Powell said despite the loss, his party will form the next Welsh government in 2026.

"I think what we're seeing, we've got more people turning out to vote now when they've got a party they believe in, and that's what Reform is offering," he said.

"So I'm very excited for what we're building here in Wales.

"Moving forward, you can see Labour in decline, and there's one party that's surging here, and you can see from tonight's result that's Reform UK."

The by-election was called after Labour Senedd Member Hefin David passed away in August this year.

The Senedd, as well as the Westminster seat, has been dominated by Labour for the last century.

This election saw 50.43 per cent of voters take part, up from the 44.31 per cent - the first time a Welsh Parliament by-election had achieved a turnout of over 50 per cent.

The vote share will be doubly disappointing given this is the last Senedd election to use first-past-the-post, as the assembly prepares to move to proportional representation from 2026 onwards.

The Welsh Labour candidate Richard Tunnicliffe slumped to just 3,713 and third place.

Following the disappointing result, First Minister Eluned Morgan said Labour would come back stronger.

Ms Morgan said: "This was a by-election in the toughest of circumstances, and in the midst of difficult headwinds nationally.

"Welsh Labour has heard the frustration on doorsteps in Caerphilly that the need to feel change in people's lives has not been quick enough.

"We take our share of the responsibility for this result.

"We are listening, we are learning the lessons, and we will be come back stronger."

The Conservatives played down their poor performance - polling just 2 per cent of the vote - saying they never expected to win the seat.

Shadow policing minister Matt Vickers told LBC News: "Of course (this was) a disappointing result.

"But actually by-elections are an opportunity for people to send a message and they've sent a message to the Labour party.

"We obviously lost all our seats in Wales last year in Parliament and we took that message from the electorate. We're dusting ourselves down. We're bringing back an offering. But in this by-election, people wanted to talk about a big issue and it was the Labour government and the mess that Labour are making of our country."