The Commonwealth holds the key to breaking China’s mineral stranglehold

All promise to bolster national security and economic resilience. But there is one thread running through all that the Government is failing on: critical minerals.

Critical minerals are the lifeblood of modern economies. From fighter jets to EVs, renewables to medtech, everything relies on secure access to these vital resources. Yet the UK — like much of the West — is dangerously dependent on an adversary.

In what many are calling a ‘pre-war era,’ China’s President Xi is ready and willing to weaponise this dominance. His country has done it before. In 2010, Beijing put an export ban on rare earth elements to Japan following a territorial dispute. During the Biden administration, the Politburo placed export restrictions on the US for minerals with military applications. Most recently, Washington has once again faced restrictions on rare earths, which undermine America’s ability to build fighter jets, missiles, and unmanned systems. Washington is now grappling with the harsh reality of its reliance. It is 100% import-dependent on China for 12 critical minerals, and over 50% reliant for 29 more.

This isn’t just an American vulnerability; it’s a British one as well. The UK depends heavily on American military hardware. The RAF operates around 40 American-made F-35B Lightning II jets — each one needing over 400kg of rare earths, along with cobalt, lithium, and gallium. China dominates the processing for all of them.

Its dominance is the product of a decade-long strategy. Through its economic statecraft, the CCP has invested billions to seize control of minerals and lock in mineral flows. Between 2019 and 2024, China expanded its mine ownership by 21%, whilst Western ownership declined. A staggering 71% of African exports to China now come from mineral-rich countries in and around the Copper Belt, all heavily financed by Beijing.

Despite this, the West has a window of opportunity.

Many mineral-rich developing nations are waking up to the downsides of China’s so-called ‘win-win’ financing. In the Democratic Republic of the Congo, China-led mining has worsened child labour and environmental degradation. Local laws are often neglected, communities and nations cannot capture any value from their resources, and chaos is left behind. Understandably, many are looking to diversify their partners.

British, American, and allied countries should be the obvious alternative, but we are making it far harder than it needs to be.

Private mining firms are struggling to raise capital for ventures in developing nations, deemed to be too risky by investors. Of the $17 billion of private equity capital for global mining, only 2.8% focuses on Africa. To change this, the UK, US, and allies must act together through an effective and collaborative development and diplomatic strategy.

First, development. With aid budgets shrinking, what remains must be laser-focused on strategic priorities. That means helping de-risk private investments by strengthening political, economic, and legal institutions. The World Bank found that a one-point improvement in institutional adequacy translates to a 23% in FDI projects. Private finance should be unleashed through development spending to enable the growth of in-country mineral processing to mitigate China’s stranglehold on resources and support sustainable development.

Second, diplomacy. The UK has a unique diplomatic lever: the Commonwealth. Many of its members are rich in minerals and Westminster should lead efforts to bring them into Western supply chain strategies. Indeed, all 21 African members of the Commonwealth are actively engaged in the mining sector. Providing Commonwealth nations with a status within the Minerals Security Partnership would be a step in the right direction, helping to overcome barriers to financing and providing an opportunity to align sustainable development and diplomacy with security.

In this pre-war era, economic security truly is national security. To protect both, the UK must work closely with our allies to loosen China’s firm grip on the mineral supply chain.

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Thomas Nurcombe is a Senior Researcher at the Coalition for Global Prosperity.

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