Could there be a hot Christmas due to the El Nino effect?
You've heard of an Indian summer, but what about an Australian winter?
After a hot and dry summer in the UK, the Met Office has delivered the ominous prediction that 2027 could be the warmest year on record.
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The forecaster has said that an El Niño weather effect will likely push up global temperatures and cause more extreme weather in the months to come.
The Met Office added that the natural warming of sea temperatures is forecast to exceed 3C in the coming months, making this year’s weather event “the largest since the 19th century”.
Professor Adam Scaife, head of long-range forecasting at the UK Met Office, said: "We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event.
"I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts."
Read also: Flood warnings come into force as UK hit by thundery showers after dry spell
What is an El Niño?
El Niño is declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5C above the long-term average, impacting global rainfall patterns and average temperatures.
It happens every two to three years, with the effects lasting for around one year.
El Niño events drive an increase in global average temperature, and 2027 is forecast to be the warmest year on record.
Could the El Niño mean the UK has a hot Christmas?
Probably not. It seems more likely that the UK will experience wetter and stormier conditions.
The El Niño creates a heightened risk of drought in the tropics, southern Africa and north-east Australia, while north-western Europe, including the UK is likely to experience wetter and stormier conditions in the coming autumn and early winter.
Following an emergency meeting to discuss the heatwave last week, Prime Minister Andy Burnham warned: “We might be in for a wet autumn and winter straight after this, because of El Niño and some of the issues there, which was reported to Cobra.”
Recent Christmases have notably been warm in the UK, with temperatures of 15C being felt in 2024 and 2023.
There is nothing in the Met Office's current guidance to suggest that Christmas 2026 will be notably warm in the UK.
Is the extreme weather being brought on by climate change?
The World Meteorological Organisation has said there is no evidence that climate change is making the El Niño effect more frequent or worse, but the Met Office has attributed climate change to being a factor.
The weather agency has not said that El Niño was a reason for the hot and dry summer in the UK in 2026.
Professor Stephen Belcher, the Met Office’s chief of science and technology, said: “This summer we have experienced heat waves across Europe reminding us of the effects of climate change.
"This large El Niño is a reminder that natural variations in the climate system are also at play, adding to the stresses of climate change.”