'Supersized' El Niño to intensify and could wreak havoc with climate until February, experts say
The "supersized" weather phenomenon is likely to bring bursts of heavy rain this winter
This year's El Niño phenomenon is likely to intensify into a very strong event which could last until February forecasters have warned.
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The weather pattern is declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5C above the long-term average, impacting global rainfall patterns and average temperatures.
However, this year's event has been described as "supersized", leaving increased chances of extreme flooding this winter.
Forecasters have predicted an "exceptionally huge likelihood of nearly 100 per cent" that El Niño will have lasting impacts until February.
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This seasons Met Office storm name list has been released!
— Met4Cast - UK Weather (@Met4CastUK) September 1, 2026
Low pressure systems are named when they are forecast to produce amber warning level impacts for wind / rain.
This autumn / early winter has the potential to be a rather wet & stormy one given a strong El Niño and… pic.twitter.com/dO8hNvQ7zx
Antonio Guterres, the UN's Secretary-General, said: "El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt, the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up.
"Sea surface temperatures are rising, temperatures keep climbing, and the world is in the danger zone of extreme weather.
"The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people. We must win that race."
In contrast to the predicted wet weather, this summer saw an unprecedented string of heatwaves and lack of rainfall in recent months, which brought the driest July in the UK for 190 years.
The temperatures pushed almost three-quarters (71.3%) of England and all of Wales into drought, putting severe pressure on the water system, wildlife, farmers, emergency services and infrastructure.
The current pattern is already established and is expected to strengthen over the next few months, fuelled by exceptionally warm ocean conditions across the tropical Pacific.
El Niño is declared when sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific rise 0.5C above the long-term average, impacting global rainfall patterns and average temperatures.
It happens every two to three years, with the effects lasting for around one year.
El Niño events drive an increase in global average temperature, and 2027 is forecast to be the warmest year on record.
It creates a heightened risk of drought in the tropics, southern Africa and north-east Australia, while north-western Europe, including the UK is likely to experience wetter and stormier conditions in the coming autumn and early winter.
Professor Adam Scaife of the Met Office said this year's El Niño was "an unprecedented event".
He said: "I have never seen an El Niño signal this intense in our forecasts.
"If the forecast is accurate, and other forecast systems show similar extreme values, then 2026 will far exceed our recent experience of El Niño and its worldwide climate influences."