Empty victory in Clacton is the beginning of the end for Nigel Farage, writes James Hanson

And here’s the kicker - it hasn’t even worked.

Within hours of the Reform leader being re-elected in Clacton, parliament’s standards watchdog re-opened its probe into his failure to declare a five million pound gift from crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne. As you were, then.

The reason questions over Farage’s finances aren’t going away is because he fails to provide any convincing answers. His justification for not declaring the Harborne gift doesn’t add up - he claims he didn’t have to because he wasn’t politically active at the time, despite being the majority shareholder of Reform UK!

And his explanation as to what the money is for also keeps changing. First we were told it was to cover his security costs, then it was a reward for Brexit and then he boasted he could use it to buy Ferraris should he see fit.

But the biggest question remains whether being gifted five million quid from a crypto tycoon has in any way informed Farage’s sudden enthusiasm for cryptocurrency. Since pocketing Harborne’s cash, Reform UK has advocated for tax cuts and deregulation for the crypto industry.

Farage has also been accused of lobbying the Bank of England against creating a central digital currency and of using media opportunities to single out and promote Tether, a stablecoin in which Harborne owns a 12 per cent stake. The Reform leader denies any wrongdoing.

While it’s possible Farage’s conversion to the crypto cause is simply out of personal conviction, the fact he lobbied for the industry while failing to declare a multi-million-pound gift from one of its leading titans was always going to raise eyebrows.

It isn’t an establishment smear, it’s a natural consequence of his own misjudgement. And that’s before we get onto the various stories about the convicted fraudster George Cottrell, whose own links to Reform have also hit the headlines.

Nigel Farage remains a mightily impressive political operator. He’s arguably had a greater influence on British politics than any figure since Thatcher, and may still become Prime Minister. But there’s no denying Reform has lost momentum in recent months.

The more I see of Farage, the more I wonder how long he’ll stick around in Westminster. He spends a significant amount of time abroad, has a complex web of business interests, and seems to despise much of the day-to-day procedure of being an MP.

So, at the risk of making myself a hostage to fortune, here’s a prediction: Nigel Farage won’t be the leader of Reform UK in 12 months’ time.

Either because Andy Burnham will have called an early election and won - with Farage then deciding he doesn’t want to wait until 2031 or 2032 for another shot at Downing Street. Or because Reform will continue to dip in the polls, Labour and the Tories will continue to rise, and Farage will grow tired of the personal sacrifices required of frontline politicians.

I may be spectacularly wrong, but my gut tells me he’s sick to the back teeth of Westminster and tempted to jack it all in. You only have to look at his testy demeanour on the campaign trail to see that this is not a man who is enjoying himself.

Feel free to rub this in my face in a year if I’m wrong, but something tells me we’re watching Nigel Farage’s long goodbye from British politics.

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Listen to James Hanson on LBC on weekends between 4 and 7am.

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