Europe must call Russia’s bluff; it is time for a No-Fly Zone over Ukraine

It can either permit the unjust and barbarous Russian aerial terror over Ukraine, or call Russia’s bluff and enforce a limited, defensive No-Fly Zone (NFZ) to protect civilians, uphold European security, and shape the conditions for a just peace.

With 70% of Kyiv left without power, this week alone they have faced two Russian attacks which have left Ukrainians having to face temperatures as low as -15ºC without running water, electricity, or heating. It is clear Russia is seeking to bombard Ukraine and its civilians to the point of submission, creating circumstances which force Zelenskyy to accept their maximalist demands. This must not be allowed to happen.

Not only is it right that Europe does all it can to protect Ukrainian civilians, but it would be advantageous for Europe strategically too. Their skies are the first line of defence into Europe.

Enforcing a NFZ would protect European and NATO territory from disruption to key national infrastructure, Lublin and Rzeszow airports have faced closures, as well as prevent debris from falling and injuring civilians. Such a plan even has the support of Radek Sikorski, Poland’s Minister for Foreign Affairs.

Where there may be fears that Russia may take this as a huge escalation and expand the war into one between Russia and NATO, Europe should communicate that it is solely a defensive, bounded NFZ with limited rules of engagement aimed at defending Ukraine instead of attacking Russia.

If such a plan were pursued by a coalition of the willing (COW), the risks of escalation would be minimal due to the clear communication of it as a bounded defensive mission, leaving no room for miscalculation. There would be no ambiguity allowed for Moscow to wilfully reframe it as an offensive action.

Whilst the real risks are minimal, it is inevitable that Russia will bluster in order to deter the plan from being implemented, as Dmitri Medvedev, Deputy Head of the Russian Security Council, warned in September when he claimed a NFZ would lead to a NATO-Russia war.

Europe should follow the signal, not the noise. Every prior “red line” set out by the Russians in relation to western support for Ukraine, such as the provision of tanks, F16s, and missile systems, has been crossed with no Russia-NATO escalation. Further still, Russia could not credibly cry foul at the implementation of external support within Ukraine after bringing in troops from North Korea and accepting copious amounts of Shahed drones from Iran.

The flying of drones into NATO territory in September was an escalation. Europe must respond in kind and offer a presence in Ukraine as a deterrence. Europe should seek to expand and implement their proposal of the Sky Shield programme which offered 120 European fighter jets to protect Kyiv and Western Ukraine.

They should go further and protect the whole of Ukraine except Crimea and the oblasts of Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia from fighter jets, drones, and missile attacks. Where Russia have breached the borders of these oblasts into Ukraine, Europe should seek to maintain some form of buffer zone to the front lines to avoid any miscalculation.

If implemented, the burden on Ukrainian air defences would be lifted, allowing them to move their more capable missile batteries further towards the front lines whilst improving living conditions for innocent Ukrainian citizens, boosting morale at a tough time.

Whilst this plan would effectively improve both the military and domestic circumstances of Ukraine, it is not a panacea. Ukraine would still be vulnerable to ballistic and hypersonic missiles, such as the Oreshnik missile used by Russia last week, causing huge damage.

However, these missiles are the costliest and Russia do not have the capacity to use many. There may be concerns within the west that this plan depletes European defence resources at a time where it should be building up stockpiles, especially as the cost of shooting down a Russian missile far exceed the cost of the missile itself.

However, the EU are pumping in £130bn of money to aid defence spending which can be partly directed at this endeavour. Further, BAE systems are integrating their Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System(APKWS) onto European jets and UK Apache helicopters, drastically reducing the cost of shooting down systems such as drones.

Only a united Europe can do this. The UK, France, Germany, and Poland should drive this together. If done successfully, it will not only provide relief for Ukrainians, but also pressure Moscow to strategically recalculate. Increasing Ukrainian leverage at the negotiating table, and boosting European credibility at a time when it looks to be shattered are both core strategic advantages.

The strategic burden placed on Moscow would be mighty, allowing Ukraine the means to endure for longer in the war and denying Russia the ability to bombard and pressure Ukraine into accepting their maximalist demands. Such a plan would ultimately promote peace by creating the conditions where a negotiated settlement is the best course of action for Russia. Currently, the strategic calculus favours a continuation of the bombing and holding out for maximum concessions from Ukraine and Europe, using US led negotiations as cover.

The presence would also strengthen NATO by ensuring that Europe demonstrates they are shouldering more responsibility, sharing more of the defensive burden, and increasing their credibility.

Europe, not acting is an action in itself. Impose a No-Fly Zone now. To not do so would be both to our peril and to our shame.

Hari Reilly-Singh is a Policy Fellow at the Pinsker Centre, a UK based think tank focused on the Middle East and international affairs.

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Europe must call Russia’s bluff; it is time for a No-Fly Zone over Ukraine.