Farage on course to be PM if election were held today, major poll suggests

A seat-by-seat poll by YouGov suggests Nigel Farage’s chances of entering Downing Street have significantly increased and he is in the frame to become Prime Minister.

Reform, which currently only has five MPs, is on track to have a total of 311 - which would make it comfortably the largest party in a hung parliament.

In the same poll last June, the party was predicted to have 271 MPs.

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The poll suggests that if an election were held in the coming days, Reform would have 311 MPs, Labour 144, Lib Dems 78, Conservatives 45, the SNP 37 and Greens 7. Paid Cymru would win six, while three seats would be won by left-wing independents, including Jeremy Corbyn’s Islington North constituency, the poll predicts.

Labour’s position meanwhile continues to worsen according to the polling. Sir Keir Starmer has suffered a collapse in the polls since Labour won 411 seats at the last election.

The polling now suggests Labour would have just 144 MPs - losing 267 of the seats it won. The polling suggests 231 Labour MPs would lose their seats to reform, 26 would lose seats to the SNP and the remaining ten would be split between the other parties.

The YouGov MRP poll was based on a 13,000 sample taken over the last three weeks.

London appears to be the only English region where Sir Keir’s party would retain the majority of the seats won in 2024.