France’s centrist government likely to collapse amid prime minister’s confidence vote gamble
France could face another political crisis after its unpopular prime minister François Bayrou unexpectedly called for a confidence vote next month.
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The vote is likely to trigger the collapse of his centrist government and prompt another period of political instability in the European Union's second-biggest economy.
Bayrou said on Monday that he would seek approval for his deeply unpopular budget plans on September 8 at the National Assembly, France's lower house of parliament.
The controversial plans include several spending cuts the prime minister claims are needed to save €44bn (£38bn) a year.
Opposition parties quickly said they would vote against it.
The situation is reminiscent of what happened in December last year, when a confidence motion triggered by budget disputes forced prime minister Michel Barnier to resign.
The uncertainty prompted by Bayrou’s decision has alarmed financial markets. The Paris Cac 40 benchmark index fell around 2% after opening on Tuesday.
President Emmanuel Macron, who has vowed to stay in office until the end of his term due in 2027, may soon face the complex task of appointing a new prime minister for the third time in a year.
The confidence vote takes place against the backdrop of a fractured National Assembly, left in disarray after snap elections called by Macron in June did not result in an outright majority for any party.
While far-right Marine Le Pen was slated to win, the left-wing coalition New Popular Front (NFP) led by hard-left veteran Jean-Luc Mélenchon surged to win the most seats in the election.
Macron, in turn, was supposed to appoint a candidate suitable for parliament, which is normally someone from the party with the most votes, the left-wing NFP. He decided instead to appoint the conservative Bayrou, one of his earliest allies.
The 74-year-old has been in office since December serving a prime ministerial term marked by chaos and facing dwindling levels of political support and popularity.
His plans to cut 44 billion euros (£38 billion) in spending come after France's deficit hit 5.8% of gross domestic product last year, way above the official EU target of 3%.
The plans include a freeze of welfare and pension spending as well as tax brackets at 2025 levels, as well as removing two state holidays.
The change would make workers in France rank among the lowest in annual time off, going from 11 days to 9. This would still be higher than workers in England, who get 8 days off per year.
Bayrou has no option beyond relying on the support - or at least abstention - of adversaries on the left and right to pass the budget bill. That is why he decided to seek a confidence vote ahead of the debate that is scheduled to start in October.
All opposition parties on the left and the far-right said they would vote against expressing confidence in Bayrou's government.
Hard-left France Unbowed politicians, who make up most of the seats in parliament, said they want to "vote on 8 September to bring down the government” as the Socialists vowed to reject an "unfair budget".
The national secretary of the Greens, Marine Tondelier, described Mr Bayrou's confidence vote as "a resignation de facto".
The far-right National Rally's politicians also will vote against it, party leader Marine Le Pen said.
Far-right and left-wing officials hold more than 320 seats at the National Assembly while the centrists and allied conservatives hold 210, making it impossible for Bayrou's government to survive if opposition groups team up.
If a majority of politicians vote against expressing confidence, Bayrou and his ministers will have to resign.
Macron will be in charge of appointing a new prime minister.
He could pick a figure from the traditional left or right in an effort to consolidate his centrist alliance, but either one would be in a precarious position amid the political deadlock in parliament.
Bayrou succeeded a conservative, Michel Barnier, who was ousted after only three months in office.
Some politicians, including Le Pen, are urging Macron to call a new round of legislative elections in the hope of reshuffling the political cards before the 2027 presidential election.
The French president has not said whether he would be ready to use that option.