One frigate and a press conference is not a defence plan

First, MPs say Britain still has no national plan to defend the homeland and overseas territories. Progress on a Home Defence Programme is glacial, and the UK is falling short of its NATO Article 3 duty to build resilience.

Second, the Defence Secretary warns that we are ready to act if a Russian spy ship heads south. The juxtaposition is the problem. We are prepared to swat a prowler, but we are not ready to hold the line.

Of course, the Russian spy ship Yantar is a serious nuisance. It reportedly aimed lasers at RAF pilots and loiters near undersea cables. John Healey says “military options” are ready if it changes course. This is good. Shadow it, jam it, box it out.

However, tactical firmness against one vessel is not strategic readiness. We will not deter a disciplined adversary with ad-hoc responses and headlines. Deterrence comes from mass, stocks, and a plan everyone understands.

On the fundamentals, the MPs are right. Britain can mount limited, localised air defence and maritime responses, but we lack depth across a campaign.

The Commons Library notes that the UK does not field a national ballistic missile defence akin to Israel’s Iron Dome; our only ballistic missile defence resides at sea, and upgrading integrated air and missile defence will be costly and time-consuming. That is the definition of being able to parry a blow but not absorb a barrage.

Nor is the main danger a lone ship off Scotland. The centre of gravity lies in Eastern Europe, where Russia is testing NATO’s resolve.

Parliament’s own committee warns that Europe leans too heavily on the United States and that the UK's readiness for contemporary war, and its public-facing plan to mobilise people, industry and infrastructure, lag what the era demands. If Britain is to help anchor the Alliance, it needs predictable scale, not episodic surges.

We must not mistake posture for preparedness. Publish a timetable for the Home Defence Programme; build munitions stockpiles and surge lines at home; accelerate integrated air and missile defence with allies; exercise mobilisation with local authorities and industry; and fund the dull but decisive enablers such as repair yards, lift, spares, and reservists.

By all means, see off the Yantar, but until the UK can sustain a fight in the theatre that actually matters, we are brandishing a stick while the real fire burns to the east.

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Andrew Fox is an Associate Fellow at the Henry Jackson Society.

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