Gaza death toll in first months of Israeli assault far higher than previously reported, says Lancet study

Research shows more than 75,000 people were killed in the 16 months following October 7, 2023, at least 25,000 more than local authorities said at the time.

Of those killed in Israeli attacks, 42,200 were women, children or the elderly, the study found.

“The combined evidence suggests that, as of 5 January 2025, 3-4% of the population of the Gaza Strip had been killed violently and there have been a substantial number of non-violent deaths caused indirectly by the conflict,” the authors of the study wrote in The Lancet Global Health.

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The death toll in Gaza remains disputed, with Israel long claiming it was lower than the Hamas-run health ministry claimed it was.

However, last month, a senior Israeli security officer told Israeli journalists that figures compiled by health authorities in Gaza were mostly accurate.

This number would place the death toll at around 70,000,

According to Gaza health authorities, the number of people killed exclusively by Israeli attacks has exceeded 71,660, including at least 570 killed since Donald Trump’s ceasefire came into effect last October.

However, this latest report argues the death toll could be as much as 40% lower than the true number of dead.

The Lancet compiled the data through a survey of 2,000 families in Gaza, which examined the territory’s population and how it has changed since October 7.

“This is a very sensitive survey, and potentially very upsetting [for respondents], so it was important to have Palestinians both asking and answering the questions,” said Michael Spagat, a professor of economics at Royal Holloway and one of the authors of the peer-reviewed study.

A spokesperson for the Israeli Embassy said the Lancet's estimates are inaccurate and the outlet cannot be trusted to provide the correct death toll in Gaza.

"A previous article published in the Lancet on 5 July 2024 made extreme estimates of the death toll which were widely debunked for being based on modelling rather than verifiable figures," the spokesperson told LBC.