Germany's far-right surge is the predictable price of letting ordinary life deteriorate

Whether they assume power and govern the state will depend on the actions of other parties, with the small populist BSW indicating it may support them in taking charge.

Irrespective of the exact outcome, this is a major disjuncture in German politics. How the country's democratic parties respond will determine whether the AfD can be prevented from advancing elsewhere, too.

The AfD has exploited widespread dissatisfaction across Germany, as measured in surveys. Many people think that the communities they live in have gotten worse over recent years. This cuts across many domains of concern, such as job prospects, shopping opportunities, the quality of schools, healthcare provisions, but also social cohesion.

In Saxony-Anhalt, that sense of decline in the places people call their homes was more pronounced than in the rest of Germany on average. It was even higher than in some other East German states, such as Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, where elections take place in two weeks and the Social Democrat incumbent has been able to shorten the gap to the AfD in polls.

A major misconception democratic parties have made so far is assuming that people's dissatisfaction with government means they want the state to retreat overall. But the opposite is the case. Through extensive research, we found that most people want to see decisive government action to improve lives.

That does not mean they want the state to take over their lives. Across most of the political spectrum, we find that people want policy with a strong future orientation and the goal of enabling small, medium and large German firms to compete well internationally. Providing them with the means to create not just any jobs, but good jobs, is at the core of what most Germans demand from the state.

But because they feel that their communities are going in the opposite direction (not just economically), even people who are personally financially secure worry about decline. To counter the AfD, democratic parties will need to shift their emphasis quickly to actions that directly affect people's lives in their communities.

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Dr Jan Eichhorn was born in Saxony-Anhalt. He is a senior lecturer in social policy at the University of Edinburgh and leads the nonpartisan think tank d|part and has carried out polling in Saxony-Anhalt on policies and voting intentions.

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