Polls close in crunch Gorton & Denton by-election with result crucial for Starmer's future as PM
The result is expected to be a tight three-way race between Reform UK, the Greens and Labour
Polls have closed in the crunch by-election in Gorton & Denton, with the result set to be crucial for Sir Keir Starmer's future as Prime Minister.
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Labour won Gorton and Denton in 2024 with more than half the vote but polling suggests the party’s candidate Angeliki Stogia faces a tight three-way contest with Reform UK’s Matt Goodwin and the Greens’ Hannah Spencer.
The by-election was triggered when incumbent Andrew Gwynne stood down for health reasons.
Victory would buy Sir Keir some breathing space after a period in which his leadership of Labour has been questioned.
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But defeat is likely to pile the pressure back on, with some suggesting a third-placed finish in a previously safe part of Greater Manchester could spell the end for the Prime Minister.
Dr David Bull, Reform UK's party chairman, hailed their campaign, but did manage expectations over a victory for Nigel Farage's outfit.
He told LBC's Ben Kentish: "We mounted the most incredible campaign. It was energetic, it was optimistic. I was so thrilled with it, actually. 5,000 volunteers and supporters came through and helped us today for getting out the vote.
"We had something like 1,200 people getting out the vote, which is pretty unprecedented, actually. It's a three-way marginal when you look at this.
"This is Labour's sixth safest seat for us. When we look at it in terms of seat allocation, this is 440 for us."
"The fact is this should be a fight between Labour and the Greens. The fact we're even at the table so says something very enormous and monumental is going on in British politics.
"I actually think that the Greens and the Labour are fighting each other so much we may well go through the middle of that. It's too close to call."
Anna Turley, Labour's chair, told Ben Kentish: "Well, it's really tight. We don't know. The polls have only recently closed.
"Obviously, the vote's got to be counted and verified, so I just think it's really too close to call at the moment, so I'm not going to give you a prediction.
"By-elections are always really difficult for incumbent governments. Between 2010 and 2015, the Tories only won one out of 21 by-elections, and they went on to win a big majority in the general election."
The Green Party told LBC's Henry Riley: "We've thrown everything at this election. We know we've given Labour the scare of their life in what was not so long ago one of their safest seats”.
In his final message to voters, Sir Keir sought to woo wavering Labour voters by painting the contest as a straight fight between his party and Reform.
He said: “The choice at today’s by-election could not be more stark. Unity or division.
“Driving down the cost of living with Labour or driving a wedge between communities under Reform. Moving forwards together, or opening up anger and division that holds our country back.
“Reform’s Matthew Goodwin thinks people who aren’t white can’t be English and wants women who choose not to have children to pay more tax.
“Vote Labour in Gorton and Denton today to send him and his toxic politics packing.”
Labour sources suggested the strategy was working, claiming some voters had taken down Green posters and said they would back Ms Stogia.
The party is set to throw everything at Thursday’s vote with more than 1,000 activists expected to travel to the constituency, which Sir Keir visited on Monday in a sign of apparent optimism about the result.
Meanwhile, the Greens have sought to pitch themselves as the only option for anti-Reform voters, with Ms Spencer pledging to “run the far right out of Manchester, not to come back”.
She said: “The polls and independent tactical voting organisation are clear that voting Green is the only way to ensure Reform don’t win.
“We are confident and have run a fantastic campaign.”
Reform leader Nigel Farage also visited the constituency on Wednesday night, speaking to voters alongside Mr Goodwin.
Ahead of polls opening, Mr Farage said: “Our message on election day is clear.
“The Prime Minister is panicking and knows he has broken his promises to the British people.
“Vote Reform to ditch Starmer.”
Mr Farage’s visit came a day after Reform suspended its interim campaign manager Adam Mitula in the seat over reports he used racist and misogynist language on social media.
Mr Mitula has said his remarks were “taken out of context”.