Three-horse race predicted in 'crucial' Gorton and Denton by-election for Starmer
Starmer's leadership to get a public reckoning this month with vote for vacant Greater Manchester seat
Sir Keir Starmer’s premiership will be tested at the ballot box this month with the Gorton and Denton by-election following Peter Mandelson’s removal from Labour.
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The vote is said to be "absolutely crucial” for the prime minister, who will be hoping his party can hold on to the seat after the previous MP, Andrew Gwynne, stood down.
Labour has already blocked Andy Burnham, said to be a challenger to Sir Keir’s leadership, from standing to get back into the Commons - and faces a tough test from Reform.
What makes the task trickier is that it comes right after further revelations from the Epstein files, which showed that former Labour ambassador and cabinet member Lord Mandelson might have had insight into the disgraced financier during the financial crisis in 2008.
Sir Keir has said he is “sorry for believing Mandelson’s lies” and has also apologised to the victims of paedophile and sex trafficker Epstein, who died by suicide in 2019.
Gorton and Denton, under its various electoral names, is an area that has been a traditional Labour stronghold, but the seat could now be a “three-horse race” according to insight, with the Green Party also hoping to contest.
Reform leader Nigel Farage has now rejected a call from Green leader Zack Polanski for a TV debate ahead of the vote.
LBC’s political editor Natasha Clark said: “The Gordon and Denton by-election is an absolutely crucial moment for Starmer and this Labour government. After Labour blocked Burnham from standing, the race is on for them to try to hold this vital seat.
“It’s the first by-election of 2026, and the only one likely before local elections in May, where Labour are expected to suffer. It will be a really good indicator of how well Labour can get their support to hold up, and how much anger is out there for the PM.”
Here is the key information ahead of the by-election.
When is the Gorton and Denton by-election?
The Gorton and Denton by-election will be held on Thursday, February 26, and residents of the constituency in Greater Manchester have already been given a poll card about where they can vote.
Why is there a by-election?
The election will decide the next MP to replace Andrew Gwynne, who won the seat for Labour in 2024 but left the party over WhatsApp messages and then suffered “significant ill health”.
The winner will be MP until the next general election, which will be held in or before August 2029, unless there is another and unlikely second by-election in Gorton and Denton.
Which candidates are standing?
The full list of candidates is:
- Monster Raving Loony - Sir Oink A-Lot
- Advance UK - Nick Buckley
- Conservative - Charlotte Cadden
- Libertarian - Dan Clarke
- Reform - Matt Goodwin
- SDP - Sebastian Moore
- Rejoin EU - Joseph O'Meachair
- Liberal Democrats - Jackie Pearcey
- Green - Hannah Spencer
- Labour - Angeliki Stogia
- Communist League - Hugo Wils
Who could win the Gorton and Denton by-election?
Latest polling suggests there is a three-way race for the seat between Labour, the Greens and Reform UK, the latter having a national poll lead.
“In 2024, Labour held the seat with 50 per cent of the vote, but Reform were in second place in what’s usually a solid Labour area,” said Natasha.
“Farage needs to show his party - after a string of defections - has the momentum to be able to win more, and hold their poll lead.
“Interestingly, the polls and electoral projections we have seen - and there are very few - show it now be a three-horse race between Labour, Reform and the Green Party. Labour risk being squeezed between the left and right parties, and it’s unclear who, if anyone, is best placed to win.”
What if Labour loses?
The government will continue as normal if Labour does not win the seat, as they still hold a significant Commons majority.
However, the result could provide a snapshot of the state of the nation and show that the public is either prepared to back the current government or has had enough of the leadership.
Natasha said: “There may be a ‘Caerphilly’ moment where the Greens, like Plaid, were able to, can galvanise the left-wing vote rather than Labour, in an anti-Reform coalition.
“If Labour loses this, it could be another crunch moment for Starmer’s leadership. MPs are likely to come out and call for change, or even for him to resign. Westminster will be watching closely.”