Heat could kill 34,000 people a year in England and Wales by 2070, study warns

The annual number of deaths from heat could soar from today’s baseline of 634 to as many as 10,317 in the 2050s and 34,027 in the 2070s under a worst-case scenario, with 4.3C of warming and minimal efforts to adapt to rising temperatures according to scientist from University College London and The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.

Even under the most optimistic scenario – limiting temperature rises to 1.6C of warming from pre-industrial levels and major efforts to adapt to the changing climate – the annual number of deaths in are projected to rise to 3,007 a year by the 2050s and up to 4,592 a year in the 2070s.

For comparison, the record-setting hot summer of 2022 saw 2,985 excess heat-related deaths – something which could become a “new normal” by the 2050s, the researchers say.

Senior author, Dr Clare Heaviside from UCL, said the research painted a “sobering picture” of the consequences of climate change.

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It comes as parts of the UK face a third heatwave in a month pushing temperatures above 30C, adding to concerns over the rising impact of the “silent killer” of extreme heat as climate change worsens.

Experts are calling for efforts to adapt homes and cities to the threat of extreme heat, with measures ranging from green roofs and shady urban forests to better building ventilation, air conditioning and more support for vulnerable people.S

Scientists have already estimated that the first heatwave in late June was made 100 times more likely because of climate change, and the second was 2-4C hotter and tripled deaths across 12 European cities including London as a result of global warming.

Dr Heaviside said: "Over the next 50 years, the health impacts of a warming climate are going to be significant.

“We can mitigate their severity by reducing greenhouse gas emissions and with carefully planned adaptations, but we have to start now."

The research, published in the journal PLoS, analysed the impacts of 15 scenarios of different levels of climate change, efforts to adapt to heat, regional climatic differences, ageing populations and even the potential impact of power outages, to project future heat deaths.

The study warned that the population of England and Wales is expected to age significantly over the next 50 years, worsening the risk as older people are more vulnerable to the health impacts of extreme heat.

It also finds there could be between 21 to 32 extra hot days each year throughout the 2060s under scenarios with the lowest greenhouse gas emissions and climate warming, and up to 64 to 73 extra hot days in the worst-case scenario.