Inflation has risen - what does it mean for the weekly food shop?

UK inflation rose to 2.9% in the 12 months to July, up from 2.6% in June, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

For shoppers, however, the headline rate only tells part of the story. Too Good To Go’s latest research shows that 20% of Brits feel less confident about being able to afford their weekly food shop than they did a year ago - highlighting how affordability continues to shape everyday decisions around food.

Inflation is the rate at which prices are changing, not a measure of whether prices are affordable. Even when inflation slows, prices do not necessarily come down; they simply rise more slowly. And after several years of significant increases in the cost of many household essentials, people are still making their weekly shop against a higher cost base. A household may see inflation easing or remaining relatively close to the Bank of England’s target, but still feel that its usual basket of food is stretching the budget further than it did a few years ago.

That pressure is changing behaviour. Shoppers are becoming more intentional about what they buy, looking for value, planning meals around what they already have and being more conscious of food that could go unused. When household budgets are under pressure, food waste is not simply an environmental concern – it represents money being lost.

This makes simple “check before you shop” habits increasingly relevant. Checking the fridge, freezer and cupboards before heading to the supermarket can help people avoid buying duplicates, identify food that needs using and build a shopping list around what they already have. It is a small change, but one that can help households make their budgets work harder while reducing unnecessary food waste.

The extreme heat we have experienced this summer adds another consideration. Hot weather can influence what people want to eat and how they shop, while making it particularly important to think about how fresh food is stored and used. For households focused on getting maximum value from their shop, making sure food is eaten before it goes to waste becomes even more important.

Ultimately, the inflation rate is only one part of the affordability story. What matters to households is whether they feel confident they can afford the food they need and want each week.

With one in five Brits telling us they feel less confident about affording their food shop than a year ago, there is a clear indication that the cost-of-living conversation remains very much a household-level issue.

As shoppers continue to navigate higher prices, practical habits such as checking what they already have, planning meals and buying with a clear list can help households make their money go further – while reducing the amount of food that ends up being wasted.

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Chelsea Kerr is Managing Director for Too Good To Go UK & Ireland.

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