Starmer says we're not at war with Iran, but Tehran has already started targeting us, and it's only going to get worse

This isn’t about suicide bombers or mass-casualty attacks on British streets. The real threat is slower, quieter and far more persistent, a campaign of cyber disruption, drone incidents and economic pressure designed to chip away at daily life and erode confidence over time.

And it’s already started. The shift became unmistakable after Iran fired missiles towards the joint US-UK base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, a direct strike against a facility used by British forces.

Neither missile hit, but the message did. Britain is now firmly within Tehran’s targeting calculus.

That warning has been reinforced diplomatically. Iran’s foreign minister Abbas Araghchi told Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper that allowing the US to use British bases amounts to “participation in aggression”, adding that Tehran “reserves its inherent right” to respond.

Downing Street insists the UK is not involved in offensive operations. Cooper has stressed Britain has “taken a different view from the US and Israel” and is only supporting defensive action to protect its interests. RAF Akrotiri, for example, will not be used for strikes on Iranian missile sites.

But in modern conflict, intent matters less than perception. And from Tehran’s perspective, Britain is now part of the fight.

Security experts warn that doesn’t translate into bombs on British soil, it translates into pressure.

Travis DeForge, Director of Cybersecurity at Abacus, told me there is a “growing chance” the conflict spills into Europe through disruptive cyber attacks, not for profit, but for impact.

These aren’t ransomware gangs looking for a payday. They are operations designed to knock systems offline, overwhelm networks and create just enough chaos to be felt across multiple sectors at once. A single breach in a supply chain can cascade across industries in hours.

Distributed denial of service attacks are likely to be a weapon of choice. They are cheap, deniable and brutally effective, flooding systems with traffic until they simply stop working.

At the same time, Matthew Albans, Chief Technology Officer at defence firm Roke, told me Britain should expect an escalation in what is known as “grey zone” activity.

“This is about pressure, not destruction,” he warned.

That pressure can take many forms. Cyber attacks on government systems, disruption to financial services, interference with media organisations, or something as simple as a drone flown near a runway that forces an airport shutdown and ripples across the economy within minutes.

It is low-cost, low-risk and highly effective. Exactly the kind of warfare Iran and its proxies favour.

There are also growing concerns about how that activity is delivered. Rather than direct state attribution, operations can be carried out through proxy networks, hacktivist groups or individuals who may not even realise who they are acting for.

Add in disinformation campaigns and online mobilisation, and the line between state action and grassroots activity becomes deliberately blurred.

Albans’ warning is blunt, Britain should assume much of this activity is already under way, not looming on the horizon.

All of this is unfolding against a rapidly deteriorating backdrop in the Gulf. Iran has stepped up attacks on energy infrastructure and commercial shipping, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical trade routes.

A joint statement from the UK and allies has already warned the consequences will be felt globally, especially by the most vulnerable, as energy markets react and costs begin to feed through into everyday life.

So while ministers stress de-escalation and defensive intent, the reality is harder to spin.

Britain might not be launching strikes, but after Diego Garcia, we're no longer on the sidelines. It is in the system, in the network, and increasingly in the crosshairs of a conflict that is being fought less with explosions and more with disruption.

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