Britain could face 'summer of supermarket food shortages' if Iran conflict continues, officials fear
Britain could face shortages of chicken, pork and some other supermarket goods this summer if the conflict involving Iran continues, according to a report in The Times.
Listen to this article
The paper said secret government analysis has examined a “reasonable worst-case scenario” in which disruption in the Strait of Hormuz leads to shortages of carbon dioxide, a gas seen as critical to parts of the food industry.
According to The Times, senior officials from No 10, the Treasury and the Ministry of Defence were among those involved in contingency planning under an exercise codenamed “Exercise Turnstone”.
The report said the scenario considered by Cobra, the government’s emergency committee, assumed in June 2026 that the strait had not reopened and that no permanent peace deal had been reached.
Farming and hospitality could be among the first sectors to be hit, as carbon dioxide is used to help extend the shelf life of products, including salad, packaged meat and baked goods.
Read More: Electric vehicle interest spikes amid Iran war fuel fears, Vauxhall says
The gas is also used in the slaughter of nearly all pigs and more than two-thirds of chickens, while breweries could also be affected because carbon dioxide is used in fizzy drinks production.
According to the report, officials do not expect critical food shortages overall, but believe shoppers could see reduced product choice on shelves.
Ministers are expected to prioritise healthcare and civil nuclear needs if supplies become severely constrained, because carbon dioxide and dry ice are used in storing blood, organs and vaccines.
The paper reported that the government’s reasonable worst-case scenario suggested supplies could fall to 18 per cent of current levels if a key UK plant suffered a mechanical problem and high gas prices reduced ammonia and fertiliser production across Europe.
Ministers have discussed emergency measures, including asking factories to increase carbon dioxide production by stopping other manufacturing, and potentially using legislation to force them to cooperate.
The report said competition law could also be relaxed to allow limited supplies to be prioritised for key sectors, including healthcare.
It added that government lawyers have been asked to prepare advice on whether the Civil Contingencies Act could be used, giving ministers temporary emergency powers.
The paper also reported that officials discussed compensating suppliers who were asked to stop normal production in order to focus on carbon dioxide output, at a cost estimated in the tens of millions of pounds.
In March, ministers announced that the Ensus plant in Teesside would be restarted for three months to help protect supplies.
Government sources told The Times that the scenario was part of standard Whitehall contingency planning and not a forecast.
Sir Keir Starmer said on Wednesday: “The most important thing we can do is to de-escalate the conflict and get the Strait of Hormuz open.”
A government spokesperson told the paper: “We took decisive action last month to shore up the UK’s critical supplies of CO2 by temporarily restarting the Ensus bioethanol plant in Teesside and are continuing to work closely with business groups to tackle the impacts of events in the Middle East.
“Reasonable worst case scenarios are a planning tool used by experts and are not a prediction of future events.”