Is the UK military running out of money?
Some senior defence figures think so – as the UK’s military chief reportedly calls for more funding
The old ‘guns or butter’ question – the trade-off between spending on defence and domestic needs – is back to haunt the Government.
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It is perhaps more urgent now than at any time since the 1930s, when Europe scrambled to rearm in the face of Nazi aggression.
And that debate spilled into the open, with Britain’s top military leaders reportedly holding crisis talks – and defence sources claiming the Chief of the Defence Staff was writing to Defence Secretary John Healey to warn that a defence review published in June cannot be delivered without more money.
Ministry of Defence officials told newspapers no such letter had been received - but when I put the same question to them today, they wouldn’t confirm whether that was still the case.
This comes as suspected Russian drone incursions are increasing across Europe. And only last week, Parliament’s Defence Select Committee, a group of cross-party MPs, found the UK would not be able to defend itself against an armed attack – just as news emerged of a Russian spy ship shining lasers into the eyes of RAF pilots tracking it on the edge of our waters.
Sir Richard Barrons, who co-authored that Strategic Defence Review over the summer, has added to the Chief of the Defence Staff’s warning.
Less than six months after its publication, he tells me the MoD is at risk of being unable to fulfil its commitment to meet the review’s recommendations to ramp up military spending and equipment production.
The MoD disputes that, saying it has a “deliverable and affordable plan” for the largest sustained increase in defence spending since the end of the Cold War - rising to 2.6% of GDP by 2027.
Sir Barrons, though, claims that without a swift cash injection, parts of the armed forces could run out of money within two years – forcing cuts to core capabilities at a time of rising global instability.
“This has reached a crisis,” he says. “The demand isn’t being reconciled with the amount of money they’ve got – and they’re struggling to make the recommendations.”
He says a combination of defence inflation, which is making procurement more expensive, and a lack of new spending commitments in yesterday’s Budget, is leaving the British Army, RAF and Royal Navy fighting for funding.
“This year and next year will be hard for defence – it will essentially financially go backwards.
“Costs have gone up, delivery has fallen behind, so when the MoD is looking at its 10-year programme it cannot make the sums add up.”
And on yesterday’s Budget, which saw the Chancellor scrap the two-child benefit cap at a cost of £3 billion a year, Sir Richard says the Government chose butter when it should have chosen guns.
“No one can argue that this is about affordability – it’s a question of making very hard choices,” he says.
“[The Government] has made a conscious choice to continue to privilege putting more of our taxpayers’ money into our welfare - rather than put more money into defence sooner. That is a very risky thing to do.”