Is this Keir's year? The challenges ahead for Starmer in 2026, writes Natasha Clark

It's an open secret in Westminster that Labour MPs, No10 and Whitehall are planning for when, not if, the PM faces a challenge to his leadership this year.

The new year will see a shake-up of the Downing Street media operation, with more press conferences, influencers, and TikToks.

And there'll be a foot put on the gas in terms of policy and delivery, to show and not just tell voters what the difference a Labour government's made.

Many people think Starmer has just four months to turn things around before Labour face a set of crunch elections in May.

London heartlands will be squeezed by both the Greens and Lib Dems, with new leader Zak Polanski keen to make gains.

And Reform will be eying up the 'doughnut' of outer London boroughs to see if they can carve out chunks from former Tory areas.

Kemi Badenoch will also be hoping to keep up her momentum with members and see that translated into any sort of poll gain.

Can Starmer turn things around? Here are the three things I'm watching closely to see.

SEND review: Where is the next rebellion coming from?

With Labour MPs still feeling rebellious and unhappy with the direction of travel, the PM will host his MPs in Chequers early in the new year in a bid to improve his relationships with them.

He'll be nervously looking over his shoulder to see where the next rebellion might be coming from.

Fresh from a win in the form of scrapping the two-child benefit cap, MPs will be feeling emboldened going into 2026.

It would be wise for the PM to listen carefully to their concerns and address some of the biggest issues in their postbags.

The government's schools review into special educational needs risks becoming the next welfare rebellion.

Ministers have admitted they're going to try and save money, and taking away education and health plans from needy kids risks a huge backlash among the public.

Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson and Starmer will have to tread carefully to avoid an almighty row.

Equally, it could be the continued backlash over business rates, which are set to rise over the next few years, that could unravel some of the government.

Or, it could be something no one's expecting; Liz Truss' government imploded after a fracking vote.

All eyes on the Labour backbenches for how well this year will go - or not - for the PM.

Budget measures: will they make a difference?

Speak to any minister and they will list a string of things the government's started to do, but aren't yet being felt.

Many of those will be budget measures which will take effect at the start of April - scrapping the two-child limit, freezing prescriptions, increasing the minimum wage, etc.

But for the Prime Minister to have any real hope of making it through the year, there will need to be some movement in the polls, and for people to start feeling a bit better off.

The cost of living crisis, inflation, and the hangover from 14 years of Tory government are still keenly felt by working families.

Will they give the PM any support for giving them a bit of a break, come April?

Legislation like the workers' rights bill, nationalising the railways, and measures to improve the NHS and cut waiting lists will also take time to come in and be felt.

If the government can effectively bang the drum enough to show voters the country is turning a corner, it could help pull Labour out of this hole.

China, EU, Ukraine and the US: Will they keep the show on the road?

2026 will see continued pressure on the international front, but arguably this has kept Starmer's premiership relatively stable.

His relationships with Zelensky and Trump have shown that his diplomatic schmoozing is worth pursuing, despite concerns about being seen out of the country too much.

We'll also have a long-expected trip to China in January, and pressure on for closer relations with the EU.

If the PM can trump more growth deals and greater links for struggling businesses without being seen to abandon British interests, it will see firms hurt by two years of difficult budgets let him off a bit.

While the PM appears to struggle to connect with voters on the domestic front, he's far comfortable with other world leaders at summits and major events.

And if Putin continues to edge closer to further war with our NATO allies, our links with Europe and America will be vital.

Whether this will be enough to salvage his struggling premiership at home remains to be seen.

____________________

Natasha Clark is LBC's Political Editor.

LBC Opinion provides a platform for diverse opinions on current affairs and matters of public interest.

The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official LBC position.

To contact us email opinion@lbc.co.uk