Keir Starmer is trapped between Mr Rock and Mr Hard Place on welfare cuts, writes Andrew Marr

To understand the scale of the problem facing Starmer, and why it matters to all of us that he is tonight between a rock and a hard place, I have to introduce you to the rock and to the hard place.

First of all, Mr. Rock. This row is intended to save £5 billion from a budget that will rise to around £100 billion by the end of this Parliament, as more and more people go onto disability benefits.

The country can’t afford this. Somehow, ministers have to drive more of us back into work and off benefits. If it can’t, it not only has to find the 5 billion quid – that’s the least of it – but it has to deal with the markets buying British debt; they will be saying, if this labour government can’t save 5% of a fast increasing cost, can it control public spending at all?

If they conclude the answer is no, borrowing costs, already very high, go through the roof and we are into some kind of financial crisis - just as the chancellor Rachel Reeves faces up to the possibility of having to raise tax as well in the autumn.

That is some rock. It’s big and it’s hard and it’s not going to move.

So let’s turn to the hard place, which is the gathering labour rebellion… around 120 MPs so far, plenty enough to defeat the government.

These are people convinced that the way the government plans to introduce these reforms, these cuts, to disablement Benefits, will hit genuinely disabled people, are un-Labour and unfair.

Many think that going ahead with these cuts would finally lose them any chance of keeping their seat seats – and they’d rather lose in an election having done what they thought was right than not.

The government whips, and Number Ten handlers, who have handled this very badly so far, have tried bullying. That has just made things worse: The new intake of labour MPs include ex- military types, doctors, business people - Proper grown-ups – you can’t treat them like recalcitrant-year-olds.

They are trying bribes – but if you think you’re going to lose your seat, a very junior government job isn’t terribly appetising.

They have tried, perhaps the most effective thing, warning that this would destroy the government completely, leading to the chancellor and the prime minister resigning and general election.

These MPs are labour people. They love the labour party. They hate that idea. But they don’t really believe it. These aren’t necessarily all hard people. But this is a hard place. 

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