Kemi Badenoch had her best moment yet as Tory leader - but it may still be her last conference, writes Natasha Clark

Now 11 months on from the election of Kemi Badenoch, things have got worse for the party, not better.

And pollsters have told me they think the party has even further support to hand to Nigel Farage’s Reform Party.

But I was surprised by what MPs, members, activists and businesspeople told me at this year’s gathering.

First - that yes the Tories may be down, but many don’t think they are out forever.

One of the most successful parties in British history looks in extinction territory, but the core party here in Manchester are in this for the long haul.

While the polls are dire and the leader is by all metrics failing to cut through with the public, I was struck by how many people still believe there is a way back for the party.

With an unpopular Prime Minister and a Reform leader many people feel uncomfortable about putting into government, MPs feel Badenoch has at least started the process of setting out a direction for the party that could - eventually - lead them back to power.

And there have been a few small wins this week.

A success for this conference was that nothing major went wrong; there was some media coverage, some discussion, and we managed to get through it relatively unscathed.

And although 20 Tory councillor defections were unhelpful, and Robert Jenrick’s comments about race even less so, it did not appear to faze Badenoch.

Despite her lack of popularity among the electorate, she appeared more relaxed and confident than I’ve ever seen her in the job.

Conservatives say they are trying to appeal to sensible Reform voters with plans, policies, optimism and experience that Sir Keir Starmer can’t provide.

Is there a way to break through the gap in the middle of a struggling Labour Party and more extreme party in Reform - a more centre ground of British politics?

This optimism may turn out to be desperate delusion.

But Kemi's conference - like Sir Keir’s - has gone some way to spelling out what the party is, and who it stands for.

It’s clear that the long shadow of the last Tory government is still looming, and it ain’t seeing any signs of fading.

Most MPs realise that the country isn’t listening and isn’t prepared to forgive them anytime soon.

But many members are willing to bide their time, to wait, to rebuild, to listen, and as one person put it “to shout and throw rocks”.

Badenoch urges them to give her more time in the hope that the memories of the electorate aren’t as long as they used to be.

Again, I fear this optimism may turn out to be desperate delusion - but the small candle of hope has not yet been extinguished.

Third, Kemi is coming out of this conference a little stronger than she went into it.

More policies, visible support from the members, and successfully dampening talk of a leadership challenge.

Perhaps Robert Jenrick learned some lessons from Andy Burnham in how not to test the waters.

Perhaps he has sensed that the mood of the members is not yet ripe for change.

Allies of Kemi say it would be “insane” to change leader again so soon - and point to polling which shows other figures would face the same challenges.

Although there was open discussion about whether to act prior to the locals to prevent the loss of many foot soldiers, that talk has quietened.

Next year’s elections are now the next test many in the party will look to, and Badenoch is probably safe until then, save any major mistakes.

Privately, those close to Badenoch know if she does not pick up support by then, she may be toast, and it’s unclear what, if anything, is going to show that progress.

Today’s conference address was one of her strongest addresses so far, complete with a voter-friendly rabbit from the hat policy of abolishing stamp duty for primary homes in England.

A greatest hits mash up of her other political arguments from the last year, with a focus on the message that many feel is safe ground for her - the economy.

What we’ve seen from this conference is that being in opposition is hard, long, lonely and frustrating.

If Reform and Labour have their way, we may be about to see the total extinction of the Conservative Party, or at least a new leader within the year.

But I don’t think they’ll be going down without a fight.

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Natasha Clark is LBC's Political Editor.

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