Labour predicting by-election loss with '50 MPs in uproar' after Starmer blocks Burnham bid
Officials fear the party could finish in third place behind Reform and the Greens in Gorton & Denton
Senior Labour figures are expecting to lose the Gorton & Denton by-election after Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham was banned from standing as the party's candidate.
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Some officials fear the party could finish in third place behind Reform and the Greens in the seat vacated by Andrew Gwynne, with a high-profile by-election triggered.
Mr Burnham had announced his intention to challenge to become the Labour candidate in the Greater Manchester seat, but was blocked by Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer and allies on the party's National Executive Committee.
A Labour loss in the previously safe seat would put pressure on Sir Keir Starmer, who said he blocked Burnham's candidacy because he did not want to lose control of the Greater Manchester mayoralty.
The by-election will be held on February 26, as Labour looks to minimise its impact by removing it from its election campaigns in Scotland, Wales and England in May.
A senior government figure told The Times: "Realistically, we know that we’re going to lose. But it was a question of what was worse: losing a by-election or losing control of Greater Manchester, which would have been a total disaster."
Reform is expected to pitch the contest as a chance for voters to punish Starmer, while the Greens will look to maximise the use of the pro-Gaza vote.
While some Labour sources are dismissive about victory, others insist they are “not writing the seat off” and need to be “quick out of the blocks” to position Labour as the principal challenger to Reform.
On Monday, Starmer defended his decision to block Burnham’s candidacy, saying: "Having an election for the mayor of Manchester when it’s not necessary would divert our resources away from the elections that we must have."
Starmer’s decision to ban Burnham was also allegedly criticised by 50 MPs in a letter on Monday, in what would be a worrying sign for the PM's future as Labour leader.
Eighty MPs are needed to trigger a leadership challenge, which could see the likes of the Health Secretary Wes Streeting seeking to oust Sir Keir.
Those loyal to the PM believe the immediate backlash against the decision has been contained after only two MPs — both on the far left of the party — raised it at the meeting.
New figures from YouGov found just 16 per cent of those who voted Labour thought blocking Burnham was the right choice, compared with 46 per cent who thought it was wrong.
Overall, Labour is currently polling at 21 per cent nationally, four points below Reform UK on 25 per cent.
The Tories are on 17 per cent and the Greens on 16 per cent.
Burnham himself suggested the constituency was a lost cause, saying: "I’m not sure losing a by-election does us any good either."
Nigel Farage believed his party’s chances had increased since Burnham was blocked.
"Burnham would have galvanised the anti-Starmer vote," he said.
"He’d have pushed the turnout up, and I think it would have been very difficult for us to beat him. I’m being absolutely frank about that, we might have come a good second."
A Reform UK party source said: “This will be a referendum on Starmer: if you want to get rid of Starmer as PM, there is only one party to vote for, and that’s Reform.”