Labour 'on course to lose Wales' with party on track for third place finish behind Reform UK
The upcoming May elections could mark the worst result in local election history for Labour, according to fresh polling
Labour is set to lose control in Wales for the first time since devolution, polling suggests, with the party on track for a third place finish at next month's local elections.
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Plaid Cymru is on track to become the largest party in Wales, according to polling, pushing Labour into third place behind Reform UK.
Reform is expected to pose a tough challenge to Labour across England, as the party faces the loss of the Red Wall and other strongholds it has maintained since the 1970s.
This marks a shock change for Wales, where Labour has been the dominant party for over a century, maintaining control in the Senedd, the Welsh Parliament, in every election since devolution in 1999.
The Telegraph poll indicates that Plaid will be the largest party in Wales for the first time, securing 33 of 96 seats, followed by Reform with 29 and Labour with 17.
Despite speculation around the increasing popularity of the Greens in Wales, the findings indicate that Plaid will still dominate, and the party is forecast to secure just three seats.
The findings of the poll cover Scotland, Wales, and every English council up for election next month.
Across the 136 local authorities up for election in England, Labour currently controls, or is the coalition leader, in 83.
Should election night follow its predicted trajectory, the party could see its worst result in local election history - winning the party just 42 authorities, with almost half of that in London alone.
The rising popularity of the Greens in the capital is likely to split the Left vote, but is only set to secure two of London’s 32 boroughs – Haringey and Hackney – whilst Labour is set to hold onto 19.
Reform, on the other hand, is set to make breakthrough gains. If election night swings in favour of Mr Farage, the party would gain control of up to 69 councils – half the total available – by winning over local authorities in the Red Wall, as well as Conservative voters in the East of England.
Even if Reform performs more modestly, it would secure 56 councils – outperforming Labour’s 42, 17 for the Liberal Democrats and 15 for the Conservatives.
In cities across the Red Wall, from Leeds to Manchester and Sheffield, the decline in support for Labour has been drastic.
In Greater Manchester, the Green Party celebrated a historic win in the Gorton and Denton parliamentary by-election in February, nipping at the heels of Labour with less than a percentage point behind the governing party.
In Sunderland, which has been a Labour stronghold since 1974, the party is now 10 points behind Reform.
Barnsley too, which Labour has held for over 50 years, is expected to swing to Reform by 12 points, the Telegraph poll shows.
The Conservatives also look to lose their Blue Wall across the south of England, as Reform looks to make significant gains in Essex – including Kemi Badenoch’s own constituency, as well as Norfolk and Suffolk.
The party is also set to lose West and East Sussex, as well as Hampshire, trailing behind the Lib Dems and Reform. The Conservatives’ share of the vote in East Sussex could drop as low as 15 per cent.
The increasing partisan fragmentation in these areas indicates future battleground arenas between Reform and the Lib Dems.