Labour's Scottish problem isn't going away – and neither is talk of replacing Starmer

Sixteen months on, could the route to his departure from No10 also take the same path?

Labour’s recent relationship with Scotland has been nothing if not stormy. Look at the General Election results since 2015 for proof. Down to one MP (from 41), up to seven, back to one, and then a revival, returning 37 MPs, as the party returned to government in Westminster.

But right now, with a Holyrood election dead ahead, the polls are once again telling a sorry tale for Labour. This election was to be Labour’s big chance in Scotland, but since Starmer’s victory, Sarwar has seen his own chances of success seemingly slip away.

Winter fuel payment cuts to pensioners, the closure of Grangemouth refinery, the failure to cut fuel bills across the board or to compensate the Waspi women, and the decision not to lift the two-child cap at the first Labour budget, all have added to Sarwar’s woes.

So much so that in his New Year's speech on Monday, he was at pains to put distance between himself and Starmer - imploring voters not to base their decisions on what Labour has done at a UK level.

That is a big ask. People wanted change, but so far, they’re not feeling it, especially not in their pockets.

And now rumblings about ditching the PM ahead of the election to try and turn the tide are making the headlines again, with Wes Streeting the heir apparent.

His name as a replacement for Starmer was on everyone’s lips back in November, after some peculiar briefing, allegedly from within No10 itself. That came after polling showed that Starmer’s popularity in Scotland had sunk so low even Donald Trump commanded more public confidence. The Ipsos poll found 20 per cent of Scots had a favourable opinion of the US president, compared to 16 per cent saying similar about the PM.

At the time, Sarwar told me he expected both Keir Starmer and Wes Streeting to be involved in the May election campaign. Asked if he’d rather Streeting at his side than Starmer, he ducked the question, saying only that he would be leading from the front.

Now with the election even closer, it seems anxiety is gripping some Scottish Labour MPs who are looking even further ahead to the next General Election, and again are briefing about Streeting. The "Starmer effect" has certainly affected Sarwar. In a New Year’s speech on Monday, he tried to put distance between himself and the PM, admitting the party had made mistakes and that he was now the underdog to win. 

Despite that, and the fact that he and Streeting clearly get on - the state of Scotland’s NHS has long been a drum that Sarwar has beaten, and he believes Streeting’s changes in England need to be replicated north of the border - sources close to him say he still backs Starmer. Indeed today he has gone so far as to brand those calling for a change at the top of Labour as "idiots". All is clearly fine and dandy inside Labour.

But MSPs, and the Scottish party more widely, seem to have little to no appetite for a leadership change at a UK level at the moment, many saying it would be a “distraction” to the campaign.

Shade has also been thrown at the Scottish Streeting fan club, sources suggesting that while there is “understandable frustration” with what has been happening at Westminster there is “a naivety among the new MPs if they think internal battles playing out in public are helpful."

Other MPs have told me that the stories about replacing Starmer “don’t help anyone, Wes, Keir, Anas, no-one.” And one source close to Sarwar told me it was “laughable”. “What every Labour politician should be focusing on is removing John Swinney from Bute House and nothing else.”

Yet still the rumours persist. Streeting himself told LBC’s Nick Ferrari on Tuesday he had “no idea” where they were coming from, adding it was “true people are fed up with Westminster… in the last 18 months we’ve been in government we’ve made mistakes, we’ve been honest about that… I’ve had my marching orders from Anas Sarwar, he’s told me to keep cutting NHS waiting lists in England because he wishes there was an effective Labour government doing the same in Scotland.”

Certainly the NHS will be a major factor in the election campaign ahead. But if Scottish Labour loses badly to the SNP and indeed trails in third place again, this time behind Reform UK, then there will be huge questions not just for Sarwar but for Starmer as Labour leader and as PM.

Throw in a loss in Wales and the local elections in England, and those Scottish Labour MPs desperate for change at the top may get their wish. It will just be too late for Anas Sarwar.