Labour's New Year's resolution should be to ditch Starmer, writes James Hanson

Over the course of the last 12 months, the government’s net approval has fallen to -57, making them even more unpopular than the Conservatives were at the end of their 14 years in office. For Labour to have reached such depths within just 18 months is truly staggering.

Yet any relief at the passing of 2025 should be short-lived. This government’s fundamental structural flaw remains: it is led by a man who simply isn’t up to the job. I’m not a big believer in New Year’s resolutions, but Labour’s should be this: ditch Starmer - and quick.

Unlike previous prime ministers, who’ve maintained a base-level of support even during their most unpopular periods, Starmer’s track record of political shape-shifting means he has no core constituency. Accordingly, there are no depths to which his popularity cannot sink.

Downing Street’s solution, until now, has been to present the PM not as a man of ideological conviction, but as a competent administrator capable of fixing Britain’s problems. The issue for Labour is that no one’s buying it anymore. Starmer’s government has been as incompetent as any in living memory.

It came to office promising growth, but instead taxed jobs and imposed new regulations on business. It promised to ‘smash the gangs’, but small boat crossings are at a record high. And it promised to restore standards in public life, but quickly became embroiled in scandals over freebies, tax avoidance and corruption.

When Starmer was elected Labour leader many assumed he’d be a Neil Kinnock-style transitional figure, helping to make the party respectable again. Instead, because of the Tories’ capacity for self-destruction, he was unexpectedly catapulted into office. In business, the so-called ‘Peter Principle’ states that ‘every employee tends to rise to their level of incompetence’. The role of PM seems to be that for Starmer.

For Labour, this isn’t just about MPs’ ability to defend their seats at the next election, it is becoming existential. No party has a god-given right to exist - as the Conservatives are finding out through the rise of Reform. In today’s fast-moving political climate, insurgents are more capable than ever of usurping the old guard.

Across Europe, parties of moderate social democracy appear in terminal decline, losing votes to both the populist right and the radical left. For every Red Wall voter tempted by Nigel Farage, there’s a thirty-something graduate being wooed by Zach Polanski’s Greens. The one thing that unites them both is their mutual dislike of Sir Keir Starmer.

The moment of maximum danger for the PM in 2026 is May. There are devolved elections in Scotland and Wales. At Holyrood, the SNP looks likely to win an unprecedented fifth term in office. Meanwhile, one recent poll suggests Labour are close to slipping to fifth place in the upcoming Senedd election. Add in the danger of huge Reform gains at the council level in England, and the situation for Starmer looks dire.

Labour’s problems will not evaporate overnight if the PM is replaced, but the party’s only chance of being competitive at the next election is with a new leader. Whether it’s Andy Burnham, Wes Streeting, Angela Rayner or Shabana Mahmood is almost beside the point - voters have already made up their minds about Starmer, and the verdict is damning. The sooner Labour gets rid, the better. ____________________

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