In the fight against Starmer, no one wants to wield the knife, writes Natasha Clark
Team Wes may have a real problem on their hands
As of this morning, Wes Streeting has not triggered a leadership contest yet, despite suggestions yesterday that he may do so as early as today.
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We’re now in the throes of a shadow contest, with leadership hopefuls giving major interviews, speaking to MPs and considering their numbers and support.
When we look at the possible runners and riders, it’s still not clear that he, or anyone, will actually throw their hat in the ring, throwing Westminster into a permanent state of watching, waiting, and feverish speculation.
A certain Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer actually was the one changed the rules back in 2021 for challenging the leader of the party - making it 20 per cent of support from MPs needed, up from 10 per cent.
This really matters today - because any challenger now needs 81 MPs to even trigger a contest, which so far hasn’t happened.
And as Labour MP Luke Akehurst summed up this morning with Nick Ferrari, if even allies like himself are leaning towards backing the PM to avoid a chaotic leadership race, then Team Wes may have a real problem on their hands.
After all, even if he does have the support of 81 MPs, which some allies say is nailed on, that’s not enough to actually win.
You only need to look to Owen Smith, the failed leadership candidate who challenged Jeremy Corbyn in 2016, to know what happens when those in your party decide to back the incumbent to stay instead.
Mr Corbyn actually increased his support among the Labour membership and carried on, leaving him far stronger than before.
If Team Streeting aren’t confident that they can at least have a realistic chance of winning over a third to a half of the party in the PLP, and have a shot with the membership too, then there is simply no point in plunging the party and the country into this mess, now.
No. 10 knows this and has spent the last 24 hours trying to shore up support among MPs.
He’s had discussions with both backbenchers and ministers, and has privately been making the case that the chaos a leadership election would bring would ruin the Labour Party’s chances of staying in power and winning another election.
If even allies like Luke are more tempted to back the PM than Streeting to keep the peace, this leadership challenge may not happen.
That’s not to mention the hate and vitriol that Streeting will get from Starmer backers and Labour supporters alike, for being the one to stab him in the back after months of saying that he won’t.
As LBC’s Iain Dale found on some of his LBC shows this week, the general public isn’t entirely convinced they want to see him out either, despite his unpopularity.
Angela Rayner has made it clear she will run if he does go, but isn’t pulling the trigger yet herself either.
Ditto with the armed forces minister, Al Cairns.
No one wants to be the one to wield this knife.
Even if he does have the numbers to get over the top, there’s a long way to go for PM Wes Streeting.
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Natasha Clark is LBC's Political Editor.
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