Leaked EU plan outlines new defence strategy to counter Russia - with implications for the UK
The European Union has unveiled an ambitious plan to ensure the continent can defend itself from external threats by the end of the decade, amid growing alarm that Russia is already testing Europe’s readiness.
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At the heart of the plan is a European Drone Defence Initiative to detect, track and disable hostile drones after a wave of recent airspace incursions near the borders of Russia, Belarus and Ukraine.
The system would form part of a wider project called Eastern Flank Watch, designed to harden Europe’s defences on land, at sea and in the air, while countering hybrid attacks such as cyber warfare and disinformation campaigns.
Both systems are due to reach initial operating capability by December 2026, with the drone network fully operational by late 2027 and Eastern Flank Watch by the end of 2028. A new Air Defence Shield and Defence Space Shield will follow.
“Over the next few years, there must be a major build-up of European defence capabilities,” said EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas.
“Russia cannot attack the EU today, but it could prepare for one in the years ahead. The danger will not disappear, even if the war in Ukraine ends.”
The proposals, contained in the Defence Readiness Roadmap 2030, will go before EU leaders in Brussels next week. The document sets deadlines for new equipment, shared procurement and interoperability between member states’ armed forces.
A leaked version of the roadmap, describes a multi-layered “drone wall” built from interoperable systems capable of detecting, tracking and neutralising rogue drones, as well as conducting precision strikes.
Read more: Russian drones expose NATO’s air defence gaps as expert warns Britain’s security is on the line
Britain has stepped up its support for Ukraine by delivering more than 85,000 military drones in just six months and investing £600 million to accelerate production, with Defence Secretary John Healey urging allies in Brussels to “ramp up drone production to outmatch Putin’s escalation.”
The announcement comes as news emerged the UK is sending a team of military drone experts to Moldova this month to train its armed forces in counter-drone tactics amid rising Russian incursions across Europe, with Defence Secretary John Healey warning that NATO must “ramp up its response to Russia’s aggression” as RAF Typhoons extend defensive patrols over Poland under the alliance’s Eastern Sentry mission.
The EU says it will be fully connected between member states to provide shared situational awareness and rapid response capacity, integrated with NATO where possible.
A major part of the plan involves joint purchasing. By 2027, at least 40% of EU military procurement must be done collaboratively, rising to 60% by 2030. The aim is to cut costs, avoid duplication, and create weapons systems that actually work together.
Though Britain is outside the EU, geography isn’t negotiable. A stronger European eastern flank means a stronger NATO – and that’s in London’s direct interest.
If Eastern Flank Watch succeeds, it will push Europe’s defensive line further east, buying Britain time in any future crisis and easing pressure on NATO’s northern and western fronts. UK forces, often deployed in the Baltics and Poland, would benefit from a more resilient infrastructure around them.
The EU’s separate plan to streamline military mobility – by removing red tape that currently delays the movement of troops and kit across borders – could also indirectly help British deployments, particularly through NATO logistics routes.
There’s a potential industrial upside, too. British defence companies, still among the best in Europe, could gain lucrative contracts if the UK negotiates access to joint projects. The risk, as ever, is politics getting in the way of pragmatism.
For all its ambition, the plan doesn’t say much about how to pay for it. EU defence spending this year is expected to reach around €392 billion (£340 billion), almost double pre-war levels, but the Commission estimates that €3.4 trillion (£2.9 trillion) will be needed over the next decade.
To help close the gap, Brussels wants to raise its long-term defence and space budget to €131 billion (£113 billion) and expand its military mobility fund tenfold to €17.6 billion (£15.2 billion).
Still, there’s no new stream of funding. Instead, the EU is pushing for private investment through a proposed Savings and Investments Union, alongside new European Investment Bank funds worth €1 billion to support start-ups and defence technology firms.
The roadmap also reaffirms the EU’s commitment to Ukraine. “Ukraine is still Europe’s first line of defence,” Kallas said. “The strongest security guarantee is a strong Ukrainian army and defence industry.”
By early next year, Brussels hopes to establish a Drone Alliance with Ukraine to share technology, production and battlefield data.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz urged faster coordination. “Europeans must take greater responsibility for their own defence,” he said. “We must co-ordinate better, act faster, and show determination.”
The Defence Readiness Roadmap 2030 is the EU’s most serious attempt yet to turn talk of “strategic autonomy” into a credible military framework.
If it works, Europe becomes a harder target, NATO gains depth, and Britain – though outside the EU – still benefits from a continent that can stand on its own two feet.
If it stalls under bureaucracy and budget rows, the continent will be left exactly where it is now: dependent on Washington and hoping the next crisis doesn’t come too soon.