What the Manchester attack tells us about the future of terrorism in Britain, writes Andy Hayman

If they did, why wasn’t the attack prevented? If not, why not? Either way, criticism is likely to be directed towards their apparent failures. This analysis is far too simplistic and ignores the way some terrorist attacks are prepared and mobilised.

The perpetrators of attacks from 2005 to 2010 were in the main organised in a terrorist cell which typically consist of several members. This formation offered the security agencies plenty of opportunities to infiltrate the cell. The larger the group, the more likely a member may be loose-tongued and have chatted to others about their intentions. In many cases, that chatter would reach the ears of security agents or informants. Undercover operations could be mounted to infiltrate the terrorist network leading to a rich intelligence picture.

It may be the case that the terrorists became cute to this level of infiltration that they moved away from multifaceted cells preferring to operate alone.

Individuals were targeted to be radicalised and they attacked alone - labelled the ‘lone wolf’ perpetrator. The first example in the United Kingdom was the stabbing of MP Stephen Timms in May 2010. Loose chatter was eradicated and intelligence sources dried up.

The horrific attack at the synagogue in Manchester is an example of how an individual can operate as a ‘lone-wolf’.

In recent months, we have seen tensions on the streets directed towards different sections of our communities. Public demonstrations have become ugly with the police making arrests. It is conceivable that individuals may form opinions of hatred towards sections of the community influenced by what they see, read and hear from varying sources. In this scenario, an individual can become self-radicalised, whereby they mature their opinions to the point they desire violence towards a particular community. In Manchester that was the Jewish community.

Unfortunately, whilst these tensions are present on our streets it may not just be the Jewish community who are targeted. This creates a hostile living environment for us all. Naturally, we turn to the police and security services to keep us safe and detect perpetrators before they attack.

That is not as easy as it sounds. With a potential perpetrator working alone and in secret there will be no intelligence picture to direct operations. The most the police can do is offer high profile uniform patrols to reassure the public and hopefully deter attacks.

The security services find themselves in an unenviable position, trying to gather an intelligence picture in a vacuum of opportunities.

This outlook is clearly disturbing and bleak. Efforts need to be increased to reduce tensions in our communities, and the public's eyes and ears are needed to report any suspicious behaviour.

Having said that, at times, life for the police is never straightforward. In an ideal world, it would help if there were space to enable time for reflection and calm to return to our streets. That is unlikely because further public protests are planned, which, if they follow recent patterns, will likely lead to public disquiet on all fronts.

Add to the mix the Bob Vylan concert in Manchester on 5th November 2025. This controversial performer could also attract opposition further, potentially leading to conflict. The police role is always to facilitate peaceful and lawful protest and to keep people safe regardless of pressures on police numbers or discord within our communities.

As the debriefing commences on how and why the Manchester attack occurred, we should resist levying criticism at the authorities, as their job has become more complex and some may say near impossible to achieve.

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Andy Hayman CBE QPM is a retired British police officer and author of The Terrorist Hunters.

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