A win in Manchester will be the cherry on top for Andy Burnham, writes Natasha Clark

Usually, it’s this kind of race which would have been followed avidly by Westminster and politicos across the country, with column inches, radio phone-ins and interviews dominated by the latest electoral test.

And just a few months ago, Labour top brass feared they could lose the seat to Reform, such was the close result in Gorton and Denton.

But Andy Burnham's big first test is now a foregone conclusion.

Bev Craig, the Labour candidate and Manchester Council leader, is expected to win comfortably.

Described as Burnham’s protege, Craig’s running on the business-as-usual ticket, continuing devolution, presiding over an economy which has been one of the fastest growing outside of London, and making transport and housing improvements.

Even before this week’s polls, she was on track to win.

Nationally, she’ll benefit as well from the Burnham Bounce, which has started to feed through in the polls - with at least two this week showing Labour leapfrogging Reform into the lead.

The news has left MPs who were pushing for a change of leader for several months behind the scenes feeling vindicated that their plan has worked, at least for now.

Burnham has had a good first few weeks in office, by all means, though there are still vital questions about his government’s spending plans and direction that have yet to be ironed out.

His two-week popular policy blitz of VAT cuts on energy bills, cuts to bus fares and business rates, and promising to tackle social care will likely translate into extra votes in Manchester.

May’s elections - where Reform did well - were increasingly focused on national issues surrounding Sir Keir Starmer’s future.

That will now swing back to more discussion of trams and potholes, with voters less likely to want to give Labour a kick into gear now there’s a new boss in No10, and they’re willing to give him a go.

As Nigel Farage and his army of staff focus instead on retaining Clacton and pull resources from Manchester, Reform are distracted elsewhere - pulling down to around 19 per cent, to Labour’s 39 in More in Common’s poll.

Mr Farage has largely ducked out of the media limelight after his very public resignation, despite the party usually successfully keeping the agenda during the summer months by filling the media void with stories, press conferences and punchy debates.

Voter apathy may prove to be an issue - with some in Manchester dragged to the polls several times in the last two years alone.

And the timing of the poll - with many families now in full summer holiday swing - may also dent that.

The results in Manchester will be a sigh of relief to Labour’s top brass that the ’second chance at a first impression’ the government is desperately hoping for is possible.

With the right people at the top, and good, strong local candidates, Labour can still win - for now.

Does it mean Labour can win another election? It’s way too early to tell.

Burnham does not have long before the buzz of goodwill, snaps of him with a pint, and snazzy social media videos wear off.

For now, holding onto Manchester will be the cherry on top of his first fortnight in power.

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Natasha Clark is LBC's Political Editor.

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