Met Office releases first winter outlook as weakening 'Polar Vortex' could see UK plagued by freezing temperatures
The weather body has now released the three-month UK outlook for October to December, with the possibility of milder temperatures replaced by chillier spells.
The Met Office has unveiled its first outlook stretching into this winter, with a weakening 'Polar Vortex' that could see the UK plagued by freezing temperatures.
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According to weather experts, meteorological winter starts on December 1 and runs until the end of February, with astronomical winter kicking off on December 21 and lasts until March 20.
And as the nights officially draw in, relatively mild weather conditions over the coming days could soon be replaced by freezing temperates, courtesy of an incoming 'Polar Vortex'.
As described by the Met Office, a polar vortex is a circulation of winds high up in the stratosphere, up to 30 miles (50 km) above the earth.
The stratospheric conditions can have a direct impact on winter weather, as conditions strengthen or weaken.
The conditions also impact what's known as the jet stream - a channel of air located around six miles above the earth that drives weather systems from the Atlantic towards the UK.
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With the vortex running in cycles, a weakening vortex can allow colder weather to 'spill out' and drift over the UK.
John Hammond, co-developer of the Vacay Weather app, highlighted that cold winters are becoming less and less common.
Mr Hammond continued that despite this, there can be anonalies.
Speaking on the subject Mr Hammond said: 'Sustained and severe cold is becoming much less likely as the years go by and, while cold snaps will occasionally happen, they're fighting against the headwinds of a warming climate."
'We're currently in the phase of a naturally occurring cycle - known as the 'Quasi Biennial Oscillation' - when the polar vortex may be prone to weakening more than in some other winters - enabling cold, Arctic air to spill out and reach us more readily."
Detailed in the new three-month forecasts released by the Met Office, forecasts suggest that by December, temperatures could be lower than normal for the time of year.
Despite plunging temperatures, the Met Office has forecast "near-average" rain and wind speeds.
The Met Office outlook for October to December flags that the 55 per cent chance of 'near-average' temperatures is 0.9 times the normal chance, meaning slightly below average.
The Polar Vortex phenomenon is common in winter, with scientists having studied the weather event for many years.
According to the weather office: "Consistent with our warming climate, there is an increase in the likelihood of mild conditions through the three-month period overall.
"However, with an increased chance of northwesterly or northerly outbreaks there is a greater chance of spells of colder weather, with winter hazards more likely than usual, later in the period."
Instead of flagging specific temperatures and predictions, the three-month forecast highlights the relative likelihood of trends and patterns seen across the winter period.