Nigel Farage set for Downing Street as Reform UK surges to 293 seats in shock mega poll

The major MRP poll, from 38 Degrees and Survation, suggests if there was a General Election today, Reform would win 293 seats, Labour would win 191 seats, the Liberal Democrats would win 63 seats, the Conservatives would win 42 seats, the SNP would win 30 seats and the Greens would win six seats.

Although this would leave Nigel Farage short of a majority, Reform UK would be the biggest party and could do a deal with the Conservatives that would hand him the keys to Downing Street.

The polling also finds 13 Cabinet ministers would lose their seats to Reform UK, including the Chancellor Rachel Reeves, the Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, the Chief Secretary to the Prime Minister Darren Jones, the Defence Secretary John Healey and the Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson.

It also found that in 92% of constituencies, more people feel worse off than better or the same as last year.

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Across the country, just four constituencies report feeling 'about the same' and 46 constituencies report feeling 'better off', 35 of which are in London.

The poll also reveals the areas voters most urgently want to see Government action on are the NHS (42%), followed by the cost of living (41%). Immigration comes third at 36%.

Some 43% said being able to access the NHS care more quickly would increase their confidence in the current government, 39% said seeing immigration fall would increase their confidence in the current government. and 38% said growing the economy would increase their confidence in the current government.

It also revealed the public are split on abolishing the two-child benefit cap. Some 34% oppose abolishing the policy brought in the then Chancellor George Osborne in 2017, and 33% are in favour.

CEO of 38 Degrees Matthew McGregor said: “At the heart of this polling is the story of a country that was crying out for change at last year’s general election, but who haven’t seen the positive change so many voted for take hold in their own lives yet.

“With more people feeling worse off than better off than a year ago, and NHS services yet to improve for many of us, no wonder many voters are feeling impatient. But the results of this poll also makes clear that the outcome of the next election is not a foregone conclusion.”