The battle for North Sea oil's future is in Aberdeen South, writes Gina Davidson

The discovery of the North Sea’s black gold - and the billions it pumped into Treasury coffers - was still years away.

So the man who was later to become the father of devolution focused on the hugely controversial “potato tax” proposed by the Labour government in 1966. And when voters go to the polls this Thursday in a crucial by-election, it is the future of another controversial tax - the energy profits levy and its impact on North Sea jobs and investment - which could well swing the outcome.

Not that Dewar’s party is in the race this time round, mind you - Labour might as well stand a potato for the chance they’ve got of winning. They may have been runners-up in 2024, but this by-election is without doubt a verdict not just on Keir Starmer’s government, but on Ed Miliband and his net zero strategy. Just saying that the HQ of GB Energy will be based in Aberdeen, it turns out, is really not enough to convince folk you're serious about their jobs.

Sure the result won’t have the impact an Andy Burnham win in Makerfield on the same day will likely have on the UK government, but the fact that Labour isn’t even at the races in a seat it held for 26 out of the 49 years since Dewar’s day til the post-independence election of 2015 - which saw Anne Begg swept away like so many other Labour MPs - is evidence of a party which appears to have lost its way in Scotland’s north east.

Since 2015, the fight for this seat has been between the SNP and the Tories, and of course, added to the mix since the last general election is Reform. All three parties know the real battle is about the future of the North Sea industry and which party voters believe when they say they want to make sure it has a future in the energy mix for years to come.

The Conservatives have moved position on this since Rishi Sunak’s time. Kemi Badenoch is clear she wants the EPL scrapped and new drilling to begin. The transition to, and investment in, renewables, the Tories say, is desirable but not above energy security and people’s jobs - there are claims 1000 a month are currently being lost.

The problem they have is in convincing the good folk of Aberdeen South, who have very long memories, that they’ve really changed since introducing the EPL in the first place. But so keen are they to give both John Swinney and Keir Starmer a bloody nose in this by-election that Badenoch has been in the seat three times in the last couple of weeks, claiming that her party alone has the industry’s back.

Reform is casting a lot of shade on that. “Drill baby drill” has been Nigel Farage’s mantra for some time, and it’s not for nothing that most of his visits to Scotland have been to Aberdeen - although it’s been Richard Tice who’s been there during this campaign.

But Reform is also intent on scrapping net-zero targets and, with them, the money spent on investing in renewables. That, for many voters, is giving with one hand and taking away with the other. Those in the industry believe it’s not necessarily an either-or situation. Both need to go together to ensure energy security for the future.

There has been much talk about Reform splitting the vote back in 2024, which allowed the SNP to hold the seat - this time round, the Tories are convinced those who may have cast a turquoise vote back then have seen the outcome and have learned from it; and the close-run Holyrood election gives some credence to that. Those in the Reform camp, of course, beg to differ.

And where are the SNP in all of this? The party is bruised and battered from the Peter Murrell scandal - which might have more of an impact in the other Scottish by-election in Arbroath on Thursday - but for voters in Aberdeen South, it is the oil and gas question that is the headline. The SNP says it offers a middle ground - backing the jobs and investment but at the same time pushing renewables faster.

Yet there is a lack of belief in that rhetoric, a sense that the party continues to equivocate to appease those on its green fringe. The full-throated “It’s Scotland’s oil” sloganeering died at COP 26 when Nicola Sturgeon decided the party would not support new oil and gas unless stringent climate tests were met. Many were uncomfortable with that decision but willing to go along with it publicly. The war in Ukraine changed all of that, but within the industry there’s still a lack of belief that the SNP’s position really has.

This by-election was, of course, brought about by the SNP’s Stephen Flynn switching Westminster for Holyrood last month. Aberdeen South sits almost entirely inside his new Scottish Parliament constituency of Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine, but there’s a bit of Aberdeen Central in there too.

Flynn won, but there were just 3.6 percentage points between him and the Conservatives. Aberdeenshire West stayed Conservative, and Central stayed SNP. And across the whole north east, Reform came in third on the regional list, polling 19.4 per cent.

Folk in Aberdeen South have had an SNP big beast represent them in Westminster. They might not think it did them much good on this issue - would a Conservative help? A Reform MP? Which outcome would be best for securing the Labour government shifts its energy policy? Burnham says his opinion on all of this has changed - perhaps the answer lies in Makerfield after all.

* UPDATED to correct the boundaries of the Aberdeen South Westminster seat, which is adjacent to West Aberdeenshire but does not include any of that Holyrood consitituency.

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Gina Davidson is LBC's Scotland Political Editor.

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